Calgary Flames at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Blake ColemanGoals1
- Yan KuznetsovAssists1
- Mikael BacklundPoints1
Islanders- Simon HolmstromGoals2
- Jean-Gabriel PageauAssists1
- Simon HolmstromPoints2
Scoring summary
- P38:28Blake Coleman Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Yan Kuznetsov (8)2–3
- P32:17Mikael Backlund Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Olli Maatta (5), Kevin Bahl (12)1–3
- P119:35Simon Holmstrom Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (16)0–3
- P116:35Simon Holmstrom Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (18), Anthony Duclair (15)0–2
- P110:06Casey Cizikas Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Kyle MacLean (5)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:06Casey Cizikas Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Kyle MacLean (5)CGY 0 – 1 NYI · NYI 57% → 71% +15NYI 57% → 71%+15 pts
- P116:35Simon Holmstrom Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (18), Anthony Duclair (15)CGY 0 – 2 NYI · NYI 72% → 84% +12NYI 72% → 84%+12 pts
- P119:35Simon Holmstrom Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (16)CGY 0 – 3 NYI · NYI 85% → 93% +8NYI 85% → 93%+8 pts
- P32:17Mikael Backlund Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Olli Maatta (5), Kevin Bahl (12)CGY 1 – 3 NYI · CGY 2% → 7% +6CGY 2% → 7%+6 pts
- P38:28Blake Coleman Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Yan Kuznetsov (8)CGY 2 – 3 NYI · CGY 4% → 18% +14CGY 4% → 18%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 57%
- ML CGY +124 / NYI -148
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- NYI: Elo 57.1%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- NYI -134
- CGY +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 3.0 – 3.5 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1451 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | NYI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −7 | −5 | CGY: Devin Cooley: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · NYI: David Rittich: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +49 Elo | NYI 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 56.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 322.5 | Goals scored | 2.921st of 32 |
| 20th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.95th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−0.6 | Margin | +0.114th of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.2% | Shot share | 50.1%16th of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 90.6%4th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 32nd of 3210–23 | Road vs home | 17–1311th of 32 |
| 29th of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 32 |
| 29th of 321451 | Elo rating | 149319th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 34–31 | 34–32 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–8 | 3–21 |
| Underdog | 27–23 | 31–11 |
| Overs–unders | 34–31 | 32–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 4–1 NYI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.