Ottawa Senators at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Tim StutzleGoals1
- Claude GirouxAssists1
- Tim StutzlePoints1
Capitals- Alex OvechkinGoals1
- Trevor van RiemsdykAssists1
- Alex OvechkinPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:34Cole Hutson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: none1–4
- P318:28Aliaksei Protas Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (24)1–3
- P317:19Tim Stützle Goal (31) Tip-In, assists: Claude Giroux (31), Thomas Chabot (23)1–2
- P218:13Tom Wilson Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Trevor van Riemsdyk (8), Pierre-Luc Dubois (4)0–2
- P28:09Alex Ovechkin Goal (25) Tip-In, assists: Rasmus Sandin (21)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P28:09Alex Ovechkin Goal (25) Tip-In, assists: Rasmus Sandin (21)OTT 0 – 1 WSH · WSH 46% → 66% +20WSH 46% → 66%+20 pts
- P218:13Tom Wilson Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Trevor van Riemsdyk (8), Pierre-Luc Dubois (4)OTT 0 – 2 WSH · WSH 70% → 87% +17WSH 70% → 87%+17 pts
- P317:19Tim Stützle Goal (31) Tip-In, assists: Claude Giroux (31), Thomas Chabot (23)OTT 1 – 2 WSH · OTT <1% → 4% +4OTT <1% → 4%+4 pts
- P318:28Aliaksei Protas Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (24)OTT 1 – 3 WSH · WSH 99% → >99% +1WSH 99% → >99%+1 pts
- P319:34Cole Hutson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: noneOTT 1 – 4 WSH · WSH 100% → 100% +0WSH 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 55%
- ML OTT -135 / WSH +114
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- OTT: Elo 48.3%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- OTT -123
- WSH +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 2.9 – 2.6 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +4 | OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +12 Elo | WSH 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 50.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.118th of 32 |
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.09th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +0.112th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3254.2% | Shot share | 50.6%12th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3287.6% | Save percentage | 90.4%6th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 9th of 3218–16 | Road vs home | 20–1510th of 32 |
| 26th of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 150018th of 32 |
| 8th of 321528 | Elo rating | 150615th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 31–35 | 35–33 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 17–30 | 20–26 |
| Underdog | 14–5 | 15–7 |
| Overs–unders | 37–29 | 30–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 5–3 WSH in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.