Carolina Hurricanes at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Eric RobinsonGoals1
- Sebastian AhoAssists2
- Sebastian AhoPoints2
Maple Leafs- Dakota JoshuaGoals1
- Matias MaccelliAssists2
- Matias MaccelliPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT0:41Alexander Nikishin Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (28), Sebastian Aho (47)4–3
- P313:50William Nylander Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Matias Maccelli (21)3–3
- P217:40K'Andre Miller Goal (6) Backhand, assists: none3–2
- P213:47John Tavares Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Calle Jarnkrok (2), Jake McCabe (18)2–2
- P212:35Eric Robinson Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–1
- P25:57Jordan Staal Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Seth Jarvis (27), Sebastian Aho (46)1–1
- P111:48Dakota Joshua Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Bo Groulx (2), Matias Maccelli (20)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:57Jordan Staal Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Seth Jarvis (27), Sebastian Aho (46)CAR 1 – 1 TOR · CAR 43% → 62% +19CAR 43% → 62%+19 pts
- P213:47John Tavares Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Calle Jarnkrok (2), Jake McCabe (18)CAR 2 – 2 TOR · TOR 21% → 39% +19TOR 21% → 39%+19 pts
- P217:40K'Andre Miller Goal (6) Backhand, assists: noneCAR 3 – 2 TOR · CAR 60% → 80% +20CAR 60% → 80%+20 pts
- P313:50William Nylander Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Matias Maccelli (21)CAR 3 – 3 TOR · TOR 10% → 45% +35TOR 10% → 45%+35 pts
- OT0:41Alexander Nikishin Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (28), Sebastian Aho (47)CAR 4 – 3 TOR · CAR 54% → 93% +39CAR 54% → 93%+39 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 66%
- ML CAR -218 / TOR +180
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.0 pts
- CAR: Elo 56.7%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- CAR -192
- TOR +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.7 – 2.8 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1561 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −6 | CAR: Brandon Bussi: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) · TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +47 Elo | CAR 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 64.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 63.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 65.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.116th of 32 |
| 10th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.530th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+0.6 | Margin | −0.425th of 32 |
| 1st of 3257.1% | Shot share | 45.8%31st of 32 |
| 27th of 3288.6% | Save percentage | 90.1%13th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 2–832nd of 32 |
| 6th of 3218–14 | Road vs home | 17–1922nd of 32 |
| 19th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 15045th of 32 |
| 4th of 321561 | Elo rating | 148720th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 25–43 | 28–41 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 22–41 | 7–25 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 21–16 |
| Overs–unders | 37–31 | 38–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 5–3 TOR in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.