New York Islanders at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Matthew SchaeferGoals1
- Ryan PulockAssists1
- Brayden SchennPoints1
Senators- Brady TkachukGoals1
- Dennis GilbertAssists1
- Warren FoegelePoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:47Brady Tkachuk Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Spence (17), Drake Batherson (33)2–3
- P35:12Warren Foegele Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (14), Dennis Gilbert (1)2–2
- P32:02Brayden Schenn Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Simon Holmstrom (20), Scott Mayfield (9)2–1
- P210:27Shane Pinto Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Kleven (11), Nikolas Matinpalo (5)1–1
- P24:45Matthew Schaefer Goal (21) Tip-In, assists: Ryan Pulock (22), Bo Horvat (20)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:45Matthew Schaefer Goal (21) Tip-In, assists: Ryan Pulock (22), Bo Horvat (20)NYI 1 – 0 OTT · NYI 48% → 66% +19NYI 48% → 66%+19 pts
- P210:27Shane Pinto Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Kleven (11), Nikolas Matinpalo (5)NYI 1 – 1 OTT · OTT 32% → 52% +20OTT 32% → 52%+20 pts
- P32:02Brayden Schenn Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Simon Holmstrom (20), Scott Mayfield (9)NYI 2 – 1 OTT · NYI 48% → 73% +25NYI 48% → 73%+25 pts
- P35:12Warren Foegele Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (14), Dennis Gilbert (1)NYI 2 – 2 OTT · OTT 24% → 52% +27OTT 24% → 52%+27 pts
- P319:47Brady Tkachuk Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Spence (17), Drake Batherson (33)NYI 2 – 3 OTT · OTT 50% → >99% +50OTT 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 53%
- ML NYI +105 / OTT -125
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- OTT: Elo 52.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- OTT -114
- NYI +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.7 – 2.8 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | OTT on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −6 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · OTT: James Reimer: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +20 Elo | OTT 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 52.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.49th of 32 |
| 5th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.118th of 32 |
| 15th of 32+0.1 | Margin | +0.39th of 32 |
| 16th of 3250.1% | Shot share | 54.3%3rd of 32 |
| 3rd of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 87.6%32nd of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 6th of 3221–16 | Road vs home | 16–1620th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 149825th of 32 |
| 17th of 321499 | Elo rating | 15238th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 35–33 | 31–36 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 4–22 | 17–31 |
| Underdog | 31–11 | 14–5 |
| Overs–unders | 32–36 | 37–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 5–2 OTT in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 7.