Colorado Avalanche at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Martin NecasGoals2
- Sam MalinskiAssists1
- Martin NecasPoints2
Penguins- Egor ChinakhovGoals1
- Kris LetangAssists1
- Rickard RakellPoints1
Scoring summary
- P316:20Ross Colton Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Valeri Nichushkin (26), Jack Drury (14)6–2
- P311:47Rickard Rakell Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (36), Bryan Rust (32)5–2
- P217:29Martin Necas Goal (34) Wrist Shot, assists: Devon Toews (17), Sam Malinski (27)5–1
- P117:19Parker Kelly Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Logan O'Connor (1), Nazem Kadri (32)4–1
- P116:44Martin Necas Goal (33) Slap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (51), Brock Nelson (26)3–1
- P115:24Sam Malinski Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–1
- P18:09Egor Chinakhov Goal (17) Slap Shot, assists: Samuel Girard (11), Kris Letang (25)1–1
- P14:57Nathan MacKinnon Goal (46) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:57Nathan MacKinnon Goal (46) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCOL 1 – 0 PIT · COL 60% → 74% +14COL 60% → 74%+14 pts
- P18:09Egor Chinakhov Goal (17) Slap Shot, assists: Samuel Girard (11), Kris Letang (25)COL 1 – 1 PIT · PIT 26% → 40% +14PIT 26% → 40%+14 pts
- P115:24Sam Malinski Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCOL 2 – 1 PIT · COL 59% → 75% +15COL 59% → 75%+15 pts
- P116:44Martin Necas Goal (33) Slap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (51), Brock Nelson (26)COL 3 – 1 PIT · COL 75% → 86% +12COL 75% → 86%+12 pts
- P117:19Parker Kelly Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Logan O'Connor (1), Nazem Kadri (32)COL 4 – 1 PIT · COL 86% → 94% +7COL 86% → 94%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- COL 61%
- ML COL -175 / PIT +145
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- COL: Elo 57.4%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- COL -156
- PIT +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.6 – 2.9 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1583 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | −2 | COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · PIT: Arturs Silovs: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +52 Elo | COL 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 56.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 323.7 | Goals scored | 3.47th of 32 |
| 1st of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 3.120th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.2 | Margin | +0.38th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3256.4% | Shot share | 51.4%8th of 32 |
| 1st of 3291.2% | Save percentage | 89.5%21st of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 1st of 3223–12 | Road vs home | 16–1824th of 32 |
| 24th of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 149921st of 32 |
| 1st of 321583 | Elo rating | 150514th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 35–34 | 41–29 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 34–34 | 10–20 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 31–9 |
| Overs–unders | 31–38 | 38–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 3–2 PIT in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.