Colorado Avalanche at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Brock NelsonGoals1
- Martin NecasAssists2
- Martin NecasPoints2
Capitals- Justin SourdifGoals1
- Connor McMichaelAssists1
- Alex OvechkinPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT1:22Brock Nelson Goal (32) Tip-In, assists: Martin Necas (54), Devon Toews (16)3–2
- P314:17Alex Ovechkin Goal (26) Slap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (35), Cole Hutson (1)2–2
- P36:03Nicolas Roy Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Zakhar Bardakov (9)2–1
- P31:05Gabriel Landeskog Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (53)1–1
- P111:53Justin Sourdif Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (25), Matt Roy (15)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:53Justin Sourdif Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (25), Matt Roy (15)COL 0 – 1 WSH · WSH 42% → 58% +16WSH 42% → 58%+16 pts
- P31:05Gabriel Landeskog Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (53)COL 1 – 1 WSH · COL 30% → 55% +25COL 30% → 55%+25 pts
- P36:03Nicolas Roy Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Zakhar Bardakov (9)COL 2 – 1 WSH · COL 55% → 81% +26COL 55% → 81%+26 pts
- P314:17Alex Ovechkin Goal (26) Slap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (35), Cole Hutson (1)COL 2 – 2 WSH · WSH 10% → 47% +37WSH 10% → 47%+37 pts
- OT1:22Brock Nelson Goal (32) Tip-In, assists: Martin Necas (54), Devon Toews (16)COL 3 – 2 WSH · COL 52% → 94% +42COL 52% → 94%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- COL 59%
- ML COL -162 / WSH +136
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- COL: Elo 53.3%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- COL -146
- WSH +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.5 – 3.0 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1581 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +6 | COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +23 Elo | COL 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 59.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 58.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 323.7 | Goals scored | 3.116th of 32 |
| 1st of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 2.98th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.2 | Margin | +0.213th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3256.5% | Shot share | 50.4%14th of 32 |
| 1st of 3291.2% | Save percentage | 90.6%4th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 32 |
| 1st of 3222–12 | Road vs home | 22–158th of 32 |
| 26th of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 32 |
| 1st of 321581 | Elo rating | 151213th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 35–33 | 36–34 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 34–33 | 20–27 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 16–7 |
| Overs–unders | 31–37 | 30–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 4–1 WSH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.