Colorado Avalanche at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Martin NecasGoals1
- Nathan MacKinnonAssists3
- Martin NecasPoints3
Blackhawks- Wyatt KaiserGoals1
- Ryan GreeneAssists1
- Wyatt KaiserPoints1
Scoring summary
- P38:34Valeri Nichushkin Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (69)4–1
- P30:36Nazem Kadri Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (68), Martin Necas (52)3–1
- P26:48Wyatt Kaiser Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Greene (16), Sam Rinzel (10)2–1
- P115:22Brock Nelson Goal (31) Tip-In, assists: Cale Makar (50), Martin Necas (51)2–0
- P113:19Martin Necas Goal (32) Snap Shot, assists: Valeri Nichushkin (25), Nathan MacKinnon (67)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:19Martin Necas Goal (32) Snap Shot, assists: Valeri Nichushkin (25), Nathan MacKinnon (67)COL 1 – 0 CHI · COL 72% → 84% +12COL 72% → 84%+12 pts
- P115:22Brock Nelson Goal (31) Tip-In, assists: Cale Makar (50), Martin Necas (51)COL 2 – 0 CHI · COL 84% → 92% +8COL 84% → 92%+8 pts
- P26:48Wyatt Kaiser Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Greene (16), Sam Rinzel (10)COL 2 – 1 CHI · CHI 7% → 17% +9CHI 7% → 17%+9 pts
- P30:36Nazem Kadri Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (68), Martin Necas (52)COL 3 – 1 CHI · COL 84% → 95% +11COL 84% → 95%+11 pts
- P38:34Valeri Nichushkin Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (69)COL 4 – 1 CHI · COL 97% → >99% +2COL 97% → >99%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- COL 74%
- ML COL -340 / CHI +270
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- COL: Elo 72.2%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- COL -286
- CHI +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.0 – 2.5 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1579 | 1420 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | CHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −6 | −18 | COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.45 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +165 Elo | COL 72.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 73.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 73.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 74.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 323.7 | Goals scored | 2.629th of 32 |
| 1st of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 3.223rd of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.2 | Margin | −0.629th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3256.2% | Shot share | 45.3%32nd of 32 |
| 1st of 3291.1% | Save percentage | 89.9%15th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 1st of 3221–12 | Road vs home | 13–2129th of 32 |
| 21st of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 32 |
| 1st of 321579 | Elo rating | 142031st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 34–33 | 44–24 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 33–33 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 44–21 |
| Overs–unders | 31–36 | 28–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 7–3 CHI in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.