New Jersey Devils at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Jesper BrattGoals1
- Jack HughesAssists1
- Jesper BrattPoints1
Capitals- Aliaksei ProtasGoals1
- Tom WilsonAssists1
- Aliaksei ProtasPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:17Jesper Bratt Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (37)1–2
- P318:17Aliaksei Protas Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (5), Tom Wilson (27)0–2
- P19:36Ryan Leonard Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Brandon Duhaime (4), Trevor van Riemsdyk (9)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:36Ryan Leonard Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Brandon Duhaime (4), Trevor van Riemsdyk (9)NJ 0 – 1 WSH · WSH 53% → 68% +15WSH 53% → 68%+15 pts
- P318:17Aliaksei Protas Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (5), Tom Wilson (27)NJ 0 – 2 WSH · WSH 99% → >99% +1WSH 99% → >99%+1 pts
- P319:17Jesper Bratt Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (37)NJ 1 – 2 WSH · NJ <1% → <1% +0NJ <1% → <1%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 53%
- ML NJ +105 / WSH -125
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.3 pts
- WSH: Elo 59.5%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- WSH -114
- NJ +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 3.2 – 3.3 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +5 | NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +67 Elo | WSH 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 56.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.116th of 32 |
| 12th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.08th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−0.3 | Margin | +0.212th of 32 |
| 6th of 3252.2% | Shot share | 50.5%13th of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 90.5%6th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 32 |
| 11th of 3217–16 | Road vs home | 21–159th of 32 |
| 4th of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321482 | Elo rating | 151112th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 24–44 | 36–33 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–34 | 20–26 |
| Underdog | 15–10 | 16–7 |
| Overs–unders | 30–38 | 30–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 4–6 WSH in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.