New Jersey Devils at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Connor BrownGoals1
- Connor BrownAssists2
- Connor BrownPoints3
Rangers- Conor ShearyGoals1
- Alexis LafreniereAssists1
- Mika ZibanejadPoints1
Scoring summary
- P316:22Jesper Bratt Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Brenden Dillon (11), Jack Hughes (36)6–3
- P313:05Jack Hughes Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Nemec (13), Connor Brown (21)5–3
- P39:41Conor Sheary Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Robertson (10), J.T. Miller (25)4–3
- P36:29Timo Meier Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Paul Cotter (6)4–2
- P211:36Connor Brown Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (35), Nico Hischier (28)3–2
- P20:19Mika Zibanejad Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Gabe Perreault (12)2–2
- P119:16Arseny Gritsyuk Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: none2–1
- P116:14Nico Hischier Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Brown (20), Jesper Bratt (38)1–1
- P115:20Vladislav Gavrikov Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (26)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:20Vladislav Gavrikov Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (26)NJ 0 – 1 NYR · NYR 47% → 64% +17NYR 47% → 64%+17 pts
- P116:14Nico Hischier Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Brown (20), Jesper Bratt (38)NJ 1 – 1 NYR · NJ 36% → 53% +17NJ 36% → 53%+17 pts
- P119:16Arseny Gritsyuk Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: noneNJ 2 – 1 NYR · NJ 53% → 70% +17NJ 53% → 70%+17 pts
- P20:19Mika Zibanejad Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Gabe Perreault (12)NJ 2 – 2 NYR · NYR 30% → 47% +17NYR 30% → 47%+17 pts
- P211:36Connor Brown Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (35), Nico Hischier (28)NJ 3 – 2 NYR · NJ 52% → 72% +20NJ 52% → 72%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 53%
- ML NJ -125 / NYR +105
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.3 pts
- NJ: Elo 45.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NJ -114
- NYR +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 3.3 – 3.2 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −9 | NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · NYR: Jonathan Quick: team allows 0.21 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +28 Elo | NYR 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 51.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.826th of 32 |
| 12th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.119th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.322nd of 32 |
| 7th of 3251.9% | Shot share | 46.4%29th of 32 |
| 19th of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 90.3%8th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 14th of 3216–16 | Road vs home | 9–2231st of 32 |
| 2nd of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 15028th of 32 |
| 25th of 321477 | Elo rating | 147923rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 23–44 | 34–33 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–34 | 7–20 |
| Underdog | 15–10 | 27–13 |
| Overs–unders | 29–38 | 31–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 4–5 NYR in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.