Los Angeles Kings at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Alex LaferriereGoals1
- Alex LaferriereAssists2
- Alex LaferrierePoints3
Rangers- Vincent TrocheckGoals1
- Mika ZibanejadAssists1
- Vincent TrocheckPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:12Trevor Moore Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Laferriere (15)4–1
- P32:29Vincent Trocheck Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Adam Fox (30), Mika Zibanejad (36)3–1
- P24:59Alex Laferriere Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (21), Quinton Byfield (22)3–0
- P24:31Mikey Anderson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Laferriere (14), Quinton Byfield (21)2–0
- P113:29Drew Doughty Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikey Anderson (11), Artemi Panarin (48)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:29Drew Doughty Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikey Anderson (11), Artemi Panarin (48)LA 1 – 0 NYR · LA 50% → 66% +16LA 50% → 66%+16 pts
- P24:31Mikey Anderson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Laferriere (14), Quinton Byfield (21)LA 2 – 0 NYR · LA 68% → 83% +15LA 68% → 83%+15 pts
- P24:59Alex Laferriere Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (21), Quinton Byfield (22)LA 3 – 0 NYR · LA 83% → 92% +9LA 83% → 92%+9 pts
- P32:29Vincent Trocheck Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Adam Fox (30), Mika Zibanejad (36)LA 3 – 1 NYR · NYR 2% → 9% +7NYR 2% → 9%+7 pts
- P318:12Trevor Moore Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Laferriere (15)LA 4 – 1 NYR · LA >99% → >99% +0LA >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 50%
- ML LA -110 / NYR -110
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.6 pts
- NYR: Elo 56.6%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- NYR -100
- LA -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.8 – 2.8 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +9 | LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +46 Elo | NYR 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 53.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.925th of 32 |
| 12th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.116th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.222nd of 32 |
| 15th of 3250.2% | Shot share | 46.4%29th of 32 |
| 16th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 90.3%9th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 13th of 3217–17 | Road vs home | 9–2131st of 32 |
| 8th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321482 | Elo rating | 148421st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 25–41 | 34–32 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–31 | 7–20 |
| Underdog | 18–10 | 27–12 |
| Overs–unders | 31–35 | 31–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 4–1 NYR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.