Carolina Hurricanes at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Seth JarvisGoals1
- Seth JarvisAssists2
- Seth JarvisPoints3
Penguins- Egor ChinakhovGoals1
- Sidney CrosbyAssists1
- Egor ChinakhovPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:56Mark Jankowski Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jackson Blake (24), Logan Stankoven (19)5–1
- P314:56Egor Chinakhov Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (31), Sidney Crosby (35)4–1
- P217:20Seth Jarvis Goal (29) Snap Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (37), Andrei Svechnikov (35)4–0
- P29:15Jalen Chatfield Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Eric Robinson (6)3–0
- P26:24Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (21) Slap Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (30), Alexander Nikishin (18)2–0
- P10:47Sebastian Aho Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (29)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:47Sebastian Aho Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (29)CAR 1 – 0 PIT · CAR 56% → 70% +14CAR 56% → 70%+14 pts
- P26:24Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (21) Slap Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (30), Alexander Nikishin (18)CAR 2 – 0 PIT · CAR 73% → 86% +14CAR 73% → 86%+14 pts
- P29:15Jalen Chatfield Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Eric Robinson (6)CAR 3 – 0 PIT · CAR 87% → 95% +8CAR 87% → 95%+8 pts
- P217:20Seth Jarvis Goal (29) Snap Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (37), Andrei Svechnikov (35)CAR 4 – 0 PIT · CAR 97% → >99% +2CAR 97% → >99%+2 pts
- P314:56Egor Chinakhov Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (31), Sidney Crosby (35)CAR 4 – 1 PIT · PIT <1% → <1% +0PIT <1% → <1%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 56%
- ML CAR -142 / PIT +120
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- CAR: Elo 55.5%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- CAR -129
- PIT +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.4 – 3.1 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1563 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | PIT on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −11 | 0 | CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.27 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · PIT: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +38 Elo | CAR 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 55.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.6 | Goals scored | 3.56th of 32 |
| 9th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.117th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+0.6 | Margin | +0.47th of 32 |
| 1st of 3257.1% | Shot share | 51.6%8th of 32 |
| 27th of 3288.6% | Save percentage | 89.5%20th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 6th of 3219–14 | Road vs home | 16–1722nd of 32 |
| 19th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 149823rd of 32 |
| 4th of 321563 | Elo rating | 150914th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 25–44 | 41–28 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 22–42 | 10–20 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 31–8 |
| Overs–unders | 38–31 | 38–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 7–3 PIT in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 10.