Ottawa Senators at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Carter YakemchukGoals1
- Carter YakemchukAssists1
- Brady TkachukPoints2
Red Wings- Dominik ShineGoals1
- Moritz SeiderAssists1
- Dylan LarkinPoints1
Scoring summary
- P34:13Dylan Larkin Goal (29) Snap Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (39), Lucas Raymond (47)3–2
- P214:50Dominik Shine Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Simon Edvinsson (13), Moritz Seider (40)3–1
- P211:05Lars Eller Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (29)3–0
- P29:28Carter Yakemchuk Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Artem Zub (21)2–0
- P117:15Brady Tkachuk Goal (20) Tip-In, assists: Tim Stützle (41), Carter Yakemchuk (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:15Brady Tkachuk Goal (20) Tip-In, assists: Tim Stützle (41), Carter Yakemchuk (1)OTT 1 – 0 DET · OTT 46% → 63% +17OTT 46% → 63%+17 pts
- P29:28Carter Yakemchuk Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Artem Zub (21)OTT 2 – 0 DET · OTT 66% → 82% +16OTT 66% → 82%+16 pts
- P211:05Lars Eller Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (29)OTT 3 – 0 DET · OTT 83% → 93% +10OTT 83% → 93%+10 pts
- P214:50Dominik Shine Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Simon Edvinsson (13), Moritz Seider (40)OTT 3 – 1 DET · DET 5% → 15% +9DET 5% → 15%+9 pts
- P34:13Dylan Larkin Goal (29) Snap Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (39), Lucas Raymond (47)OTT 3 – 2 DET · DET 9% → 26% +17DET 9% → 26%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Wings 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- DET 55%
- ML OTT +114 / DET -135
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- DET: Elo 54.9%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- DET -123
- OTT +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 2.6 – 2.9 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | OTT on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +4 | OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · DET: John Gibson: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +34 Elo | DET 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 50.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 2.921st of 32 |
| 13th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.010th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.3 | Margin | 0.017th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3254.9% | Shot share | 50.5%13th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3287.7% | Save percentage | 90.1%12th of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 11th of 3219–17 | Road vs home | 20–1510th of 32 |
| 26th of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 15038th of 32 |
| 6th of 321531 | Elo rating | 150216th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 32–38 | 36–34 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 18–33 | 8–23 |
| Underdog | 14–5 | 28–11 |
| Overs–unders | 38–32 | 33–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 6–5 DET in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 11.