Boston Bruins at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Elias LindholmGoals1
- Morgan GeekieAssists3
- Morgan GeekiePoints3
Red Wings- Alex DeBrincatGoals1
- Patrick KaneAssists1
- Alex DeBrincatPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:08Marat Khusnutdinov Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (58), Elias Lindholm (29)4–2
- P39:42Nikita Zadorov Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Geekie (27), Charlie McAvoy (44)3–2
- P36:22Elias Lindholm Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Geekie (26), Mason Lohrei (18)2–2
- P34:06Alex DeBrincat Goal (35) Snap Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (39)1–2
- P25:07David Pastrnak Goal (28) Slap Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (43), Morgan Geekie (25)1–1
- P23:35Lucas Raymond Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Andrew Copp (30), Patrick Kane (30)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P23:35Lucas Raymond Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Andrew Copp (30), Patrick Kane (30)BOS 0 – 1 DET · DET 52% → 70% +18DET 52% → 70%+18 pts
- P25:07David Pastrnak Goal (28) Slap Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (43), Morgan Geekie (25)BOS 1 – 1 DET · BOS 30% → 48% +18BOS 30% → 48%+18 pts
- P34:06Alex DeBrincat Goal (35) Snap Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (39)BOS 1 – 2 DET · DET 51% → 77% +26DET 51% → 77%+26 pts
- P36:22Elias Lindholm Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Geekie (26), Mason Lohrei (18)BOS 2 – 2 DET · BOS 21% → 49% +28BOS 21% → 49%+28 pts
- P39:42Nikita Zadorov Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Geekie (27), Charlie McAvoy (44)BOS 3 – 2 DET · BOS 49% → 80% +31BOS 49% → 80%+31 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Wings 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- DET 52%
- ML BOS +100 / DET -120
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.6 pts
- DET: Elo 55.7%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -109
- BOS +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.7 – 2.8 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +5 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · DET: John Gibson: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +40 Elo | DET 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 54.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.921st of 32 |
| 19th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.09th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.2 | Margin | 0.017th of 32 |
| 25th of 3247.8% | Shot share | 50.3%14th of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 90.1%10th of 32 |
| 10th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 28th of 3212–20 | Road vs home | 20–149th of 32 |
| 16th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 15028th of 32 |
| 16th of 321500 | Elo rating | 150615th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 44–25 | 36–33 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–13 | 8–22 |
| Underdog | 33–12 | 28–11 |
| Overs–unders | 37–32 | 32–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 6–4 DET in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.