Calgary Flames at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Matt CoronatoGoals1
- Matt CoronatoAssists1
- Matt CoronatoPoints2
Red Wings- Patrick KaneGoals2
- Alex DeBrincatAssists3
- Alex DeBrincatPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:55Dominik Shine Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–5
- P211:45Moritz Seider Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (36), J.T. Compher (14)2–4
- P27:23Matt Coronato Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–3
- P26:37Patrick Kane Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Alex DeBrincat (35), J.T. Compher (13)1–3
- P25:06Emmitt Finnie Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Albert Johansson (7), Lucas Raymond (46)1–2
- P21:03Patrick Kane Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (34)1–1
- P117:35Morgan Frost Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Matvei Gridin (6), Matt Coronato (17)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:35Morgan Frost Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Matvei Gridin (6), Matt Coronato (17)CGY 1 – 0 DET · CGY 40% → 57% +17CGY 40% → 57%+17 pts
- P21:03Patrick Kane Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (34)CGY 1 – 1 DET · DET 42% → 60% +18DET 42% → 60%+18 pts
- P25:06Emmitt Finnie Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Albert Johansson (7), Lucas Raymond (46)CGY 1 – 2 DET · DET 59% → 76% +17DET 59% → 76%+17 pts
- P27:23Matt Coronato Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCGY 2 – 3 DET · CGY 11% → 23% +12CGY 11% → 23%+12 pts
- P211:45Moritz Seider Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (36), J.T. Compher (14)CGY 2 – 4 DET · DET 77% → 90% +13DET 77% → 90%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Wings 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- DET 62%
- ML CGY +154 / DET -185
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- DET: Elo 62.8%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -165
- CGY +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.4 – 3.1 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1449 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +4 | CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · DET: John Gibson: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +91 Elo | DET 62.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 64.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 64.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 322.5 | Goals scored | 2.922nd of 32 |
| 20th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.010th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−0.6 | Margin | −0.117th of 32 |
| 20th of 3249.3% | Shot share | 50.4%14th of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 90.0%13th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3210–24 | Road vs home | 18–1410th of 32 |
| 29th of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 15045th of 32 |
| 29th of 321449 | Elo rating | 150017th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 35–31 | 34–33 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–8 | 7–22 |
| Underdog | 28–23 | 27–11 |
| Overs–unders | 34–32 | 31–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 0–5 DET in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.