Montreal Canadiens at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Juraj SlafkovskyGoals1
- Nick SuzukiAssists1
- Juraj SlafkovskyPoints1
Red Wings- Alex DeBrincatGoals1
- Alex DeBrincatAssists2
- Alex DeBrincatPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:43Andrew Copp Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (38)1–3
- P316:35Alex DeBrincat Goal (34) Backhand, assists: none1–2
- P32:14J.T. Compher Goal (10) Deflected, assists: Patrick Kane (29), Alex DeBrincat (37)1–1
- P217:45Juraj Slafkovský Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (29), Nick Suzuki (57)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P217:45Juraj Slafkovský Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (29), Nick Suzuki (57)MTL 1 – 0 DET · MTL 51% → 73% +22MTL 51% → 73%+22 pts
- P32:14J.T. Compher Goal (10) Deflected, assists: Patrick Kane (29), Alex DeBrincat (37)MTL 1 – 1 DET · DET 25% → 49% +25DET 25% → 49%+25 pts
- P316:35Alex DeBrincat Goal (34) Backhand, assists: noneMTL 1 – 2 DET · DET 50% → 94% +44DET 50% → 94%+44 pts
- P319:43Andrew Copp Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (38)MTL 1 – 3 DET · DET >99% → 100% +0DET >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canadiens 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- MTL 51%
- ML MTL -115 / DET -105
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- MTL: Elo 45.9%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MTL -104
- DET +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 3.3 – 3.2 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +4 | MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · DET: John Gibson: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +29 Elo | DET 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 54.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MTL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 2.921st of 32 |
| 25th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.010th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.2 | Margin | 0.017th of 32 |
| 21st of 3249.1% | Shot share | 50.3%14th of 32 |
| 26th of 3288.7% | Save percentage | 90.0%12th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 8th of 3218–15 | Road vs home | 19–1410th of 32 |
| 13th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 15037th of 32 |
| 12th of 321512 | Elo rating | 150316th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 37–30 | 35–33 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–26 | 8–22 |
| Underdog | 29–4 | 27–11 |
| Overs–unders | 41–26 | 32–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 5–5 DET in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 10.