Ottawa Senators at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Warren FoegeleGoals1
- Lars EllerAssists1
- Warren FoegelePoints1
Rangers- Conor ShearyGoals1
- Matthew RobertsonAssists1
- Conor ShearyPoints1
Scoring summary
- P37:03Conor Sheary Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Tye Kartye (11), Matthew Robertson (11)2–1
- P26:46Warren Foegele Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Lars Eller (9)2–0
- P16:30Shane Pinto Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (32), Jordan Spence (20)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:30Shane Pinto Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (32), Jordan Spence (20)OTT 1 – 0 NYR · OTT 62% → 76% +13OTT 62% → 76%+13 pts
- P26:46Warren Foegele Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Lars Eller (9)OTT 2 – 0 NYR · OTT 77% → 89% +12OTT 77% → 89%+12 pts
- P37:03Conor Sheary Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Tye Kartye (11), Matthew Robertson (11)OTT 2 – 1 NYR · NYR 4% → 17% +13NYR 4% → 17%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 63%
- ML OTT -192 / NYR +160
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.7 pts
- OTT: Elo 52.4%, market 63.1%
- Fair odds
- OTT -171
- NYR +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 3.1 – 2.4 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +5 | OTT: James Reimer: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +16 Elo | OTT 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 54.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 63.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 2.826th of 32 |
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.222nd of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.3 | Margin | −0.425th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3254.7% | Shot share | 46.1%30th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3287.7% | Save percentage | 90.2%11th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 11th of 3218–17 | Road vs home | 9–2431st of 32 |
| 24th of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 15036th of 32 |
| 7th of 321529 | Elo rating | 146828th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 32–37 | 34–36 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 18–32 | 7–21 |
| Underdog | 14–5 | 27–15 |
| Overs–unders | 38–31 | 33–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 3–5 NYR in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.