Winnipeg Jets at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Gabriel VilardiGoals1
- Gabriel VilardiAssists1
- Gabriel VilardiPoints2
Rangers- Mika ZibanejadGoals1
- J.T. MillerAssists2
- J.T. MillerPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Gabriel Vilardi Goal Snap Shot2–0
- SO0:00Kyle Connor Goal Snap Shot2–0
- P214:03Mika Zibanejad Goal (30) Slap Shot, assists: Adam Fox (32), J.T. Miller (27)2–2
- P26:43Gabriel Vilardi Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (48), Josh Morrissey (35)2–1
- P20:41Tye Kartye Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (26)1–1
- P113:06Adam Lowry Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (31), Cole Perfetti (18)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:06Adam Lowry Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (31), Cole Perfetti (18)WPG 1 – 0 NYR · WPG 49% → 65% +16WPG 49% → 65%+16 pts
- P20:41Tye Kartye Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (26)WPG 1 – 1 NYR · NYR 33% → 51% +17NYR 33% → 51%+17 pts
- P26:43Gabriel Vilardi Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (48), Josh Morrissey (35)WPG 2 – 1 NYR · WPG 49% → 68% +19WPG 49% → 68%+19 pts
- P214:03Mika Zibanejad Goal (30) Slap Shot, assists: Adam Fox (32), J.T. Miller (27)WPG 2 – 2 NYR · NYR 30% → 51% +21NYR 30% → 51%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 51%
- ML WPG -105 / NYR -115
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.3 pts
- NYR: Elo 57.3%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- NYR -104
- WPG +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 3.2 – 3.3 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | WPG on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −7 | +1 | WPG: Eric Comrie: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) · NYR: Dylan Garand (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +51 Elo | NYR 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 59.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 59.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.824th of 32 |
| 21st of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.222nd of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.425th of 32 |
| 24th of 3248.5% | Shot share | 46.1%30th of 32 |
| 19th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 90.1%12th of 32 |
| 10th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 32 |
| 31st of 3211–22 | Road vs home | 9–2331st of 32 |
| 22nd of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 15037th of 32 |
| 19th of 321492 | Elo rating | 147027th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–39 | 34–35 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–31 | 7–20 |
| Underdog | 19–8 | 27–15 |
| Overs–unders | 37–32 | 33–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 3–2 NYR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.