New York Rangers at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Alexis LafreniereGoals1
- Alexis LafreniereAssists1
- Mika ZibanejadPoints2
Blue Jackets- Adam FantilliGoals2
- Zach WerenskiAssists3
- Zach WerenskiPoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:06Adam Fantilli Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (23)3–6
- P36:12Damon Severson Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Sillinger (23), Zach Werenski (52)3–5
- P30:50Alexis Lafrenière Goal (20) Tip-In, assists: Adam Fox (31), Mika Zibanejad (37)3–4
- P215:25Adam Fantilli Goal (20) Tip-In, assists: Zach Werenski (51), Kirill Marchenko (33)2–4
- P27:04Boone Jenner Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Danton Heinen (3), Ivan Provorov (19)2–3
- P24:44Mika Zibanejad Goal (29) Snap Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (27), Gabe Perreault (13)2–2
- P119:01Conor Garland Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (50)1–2
- P114:33Isac Lundeström Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Boone Jenner (21)1–1
- P15:41Vincent Trocheck Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:41Vincent Trocheck Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNYR 1 – 0 CBJ · NYR 35% → 50% +15NYR 35% → 50%+15 pts
- P114:33Isac Lundeström Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Boone Jenner (21)NYR 1 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 47% → 64% +16CBJ 47% → 64%+16 pts
- P119:01Conor Garland Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (50)NYR 1 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 63% → 78% +15CBJ 63% → 78%+15 pts
- P24:44Mika Zibanejad Goal (29) Snap Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (27), Gabe Perreault (13)NYR 2 – 2 CBJ · NYR 22% → 38% +16NYR 22% → 38%+16 pts
- P27:04Boone Jenner Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Danton Heinen (3), Ivan Provorov (19)NYR 2 – 3 CBJ · CBJ 62% → 79% +17CBJ 62% → 79%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jackets 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- CBJ 66%
- ML NYR +180 / CBJ -218
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- CBJ: Elo 66.0%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -192
- NYR +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 2.8 – 3.7 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | NYR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +8 | +14 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.35 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +115 Elo | CBJ 66.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 68.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 68.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CBJ 65.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.213th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.118th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.3 | Margin | +0.114th of 32 |
| 29th of 3246.2% | Shot share | 50.4%13th of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 90.0%14th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 12th of 3218–17 | Road vs home | 18–1513th of 32 |
| 9th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 32 |
| 26th of 321473 | Elo rating | 15189th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 34–34 | 37–30 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–20 | 8–17 |
| Underdog | 27–14 | 29–13 |
| Overs–unders | 32–36 | 33–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 6–4 CBJ in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.