Dallas Stars at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Matt DucheneGoals1
- Thomas HarleyAssists1
- Matt DuchenePoints1
Islanders- Calum RitchieGoals1
- Matthew SchaeferAssists2
- Matthew SchaeferPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:01Matt Duchene Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (17), Thomas Harley (27)1–2
- P32:19Calum Ritchie Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Matthew Schaefer (32), Ryan Pulock (23)0–2
- P14:48Bo Horvat Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Emil Heineman (9), Matthew Schaefer (31)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:48Bo Horvat Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Emil Heineman (9), Matthew Schaefer (31)DAL 0 – 1 NYI · NYI 48% → 63% +15NYI 48% → 63%+15 pts
- P32:19Calum Ritchie Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Matthew Schaefer (32), Ryan Pulock (23)DAL 0 – 2 NYI · NYI 74% → 91% +17NYI 74% → 91%+17 pts
- P317:01Matt Duchene Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (17), Thomas Harley (27)DAL 1 – 2 NYI · DAL <1% → 5% +5DAL <1% → 5%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 52%
- ML DAL -118 / NYI -102
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- DAL: Elo 54.0%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- DAL -107
- NYI +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 2.8 – 2.7 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1557 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +2 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +28 Elo | DAL 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 53.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 2.923rd of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 2.95th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+0.7 | Margin | 0.015th of 32 |
| 20th of 3249.2% | Shot share | 50.0%16th of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 90.6%5th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3221–14 | Road vs home | 19–1410th of 32 |
| 30th of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 149922nd of 32 |
| 4th of 321557 | Elo rating | 149219th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 29–42 | 37–35 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 15–40 | 4–23 |
| Underdog | 14–2 | 33–12 |
| Overs–unders | 35–36 | 34–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 2–3 NYI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.