Chicago Blackhawks at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Nick LardisGoals1
- Nick LardisAssists2
- Nick LardisPoints3
Islanders- Anders LeeGoals1
- Matthew SchaeferAssists1
- Anders LeePoints1
Scoring summary
- P316:37Calum Ritchie Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Carson Soucy (6), Mathew Barzal (47)4–3
- P38:45Simon Holmstrom Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Scott Mayfield (10)4–2
- P26:02Frank Nazar Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Lardis (5)4–1
- P119:31Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (29) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Vlasic (17), Nick Lardis (4)3–1
- P118:06Ilya Mikheyev Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Anton Frondell (1)2–1
- P112:46Nick Lardis Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Frank Nazar (24), Tyler Bertuzzi (23)1–1
- P10:49Anders Lee Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Matthew Schaefer (30), Bo Horvat (22)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:49Anders Lee Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Matthew Schaefer (30), Bo Horvat (22)CHI 0 – 1 NYI · NYI 60% → 73% +13NYI 60% → 73%+13 pts
- P112:46Nick Lardis Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Frank Nazar (24), Tyler Bertuzzi (23)CHI 1 – 1 NYI · CHI 26% → 41% +15CHI 26% → 41%+15 pts
- P118:06Ilya Mikheyev Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Anton Frondell (1)CHI 2 – 1 NYI · CHI 42% → 59% +17CHI 42% → 59%+17 pts
- P119:31Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (29) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Vlasic (17), Nick Lardis (4)CHI 3 – 1 NYI · CHI 59% → 75% +16CHI 59% → 75%+16 pts
- P26:02Frank Nazar Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Lardis (5)CHI 4 – 1 NYI · CHI 78% → 90% +11CHI 78% → 90%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 60%
- ML CHI +140 / NYI -166
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.7 pts
- NYI: Elo 67.7%, market 60.0%
- Fair odds
- NYI -150
- CHI +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.5 – 3.0 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1415 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −17 | −4 | CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.43 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · NYI: David Rittich: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +128 Elo | NYI 67.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 65.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 66.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 60.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 2.923rd of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.85th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−0.6 | Margin | +0.114th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3245.1% | Shot share | 49.7%16th of 32 |
| 15th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 90.7%4th of 32 |
| 28th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 28th of 3213–21 | Road vs home | 19–138th of 32 |
| 7th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 150018th of 32 |
| 31st of 321415 | Elo rating | 149518th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 45–25 | 37–34 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 4–22 |
| Underdog | 45–22 | 33–12 |
| Overs–unders | 28–42 | 33–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 2–3 NYI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.