Nashville Predators at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Filip ForsbergGoals2
- Filip ForsbergAssists1
- Filip ForsbergPoints3
Blackhawks- Nick LardisGoals1
- Tyler BertuzziAssists1
- Connor BedardPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT1:05Filip Forsberg Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–2
- P39:43Steven Stamkos Goal (34) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (30), Roman Josi (36)2–2
- P213:57Connor Bedard Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Greene (17)1–2
- P26:31Filip Forsberg Goal (31) Snap Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (14)1–1
- P24:34Nick Lardis Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (22), Alex Vlasic (16)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:34Nick Lardis Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (22), Alex Vlasic (16)NSH 0 – 1 CHI · CHI 49% → 68% +18CHI 49% → 68%+18 pts
- P26:31Filip Forsberg Goal (31) Snap Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (14)NSH 1 – 1 CHI · NSH 32% → 51% +19NSH 32% → 51%+19 pts
- P213:57Connor Bedard Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Greene (17)NSH 1 – 2 CHI · CHI 49% → 70% +21CHI 49% → 70%+21 pts
- P39:43Steven Stamkos Goal (34) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (30), Roman Josi (36)NSH 2 – 2 CHI · NSH 19% → 50% +31NSH 19% → 50%+31 pts
- OT1:05Filip Forsberg Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNSH 3 – 2 CHI · NSH 50% → 92% +42NSH 50% → 92%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Predators 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NSH 51%
- ML NSH -115 / CHI -105
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 44%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- NSH: Elo 47.5%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- NSH -104
- CHI +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 2.8 – 2.7 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1418 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | NSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +8 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +17 Elo | CHI 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 55.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NSH 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.629th of 32 |
| 27th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.223rd of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.629th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3248.7% | Shot share | 45.0%32nd of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 90.0%14th of 32 |
| 10th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 24th of 3213–20 | Road vs home | 13–2229th of 32 |
| 9th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 15036th of 32 |
| 26th of 321472 | Elo rating | 141831st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 38–31 | 44–25 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–13 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 32–18 | 44–22 |
| Overs–unders | 33–36 | 28–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 9–2 CHI in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.