New York Islanders at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Simon HolmstromGoals1
- Anders LeeAssists1
- Simon HolmstromPoints1
Canadiens- Cole CaufieldGoals3
- Nick SuzukiAssists4
- Cole CaufieldPoints5
Scoring summary
- P314:59Cole Caufield Goal (43) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (61)3–7
- P311:20Cole Caufield Goal (42) Snap Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovský (34), Kaiden Guhle (8)3–6
- P38:08Juraj Slafkovský Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (31), Nick Suzuki (60)3–5
- P33:17Kaiden Guhle Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Alexandre Carrier (14), Brendan Gallagher (16)3–4
- P30:45Matthew Schaefer Goal (22) Slap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (46), Bo Horvat (21)3–3
- P219:08Cole Caufield Goal (41) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (59), Juraj Slafkovský (33)2–3
- P217:49Alex Newhook Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Kaiden Guhle (7), Oliver Kapanen (14)2–2
- P113:19Simon Holmstrom Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Pelech (10)2–1
- P16:46Emil Heineman Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Anders Lee (21), Tony DeAngelo (28)1–1
- P14:10Juraj Slafkovský Goal (26) Slap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (58), Cole Caufield (30)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:19Simon Holmstrom Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Pelech (10)NYI 2 – 1 MTL · NYI 48% → 64% +16NYI 48% → 64%+16 pts
- P217:49Alex Newhook Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Kaiden Guhle (7), Oliver Kapanen (14)NYI 2 – 2 MTL · MTL 29% → 51% +23MTL 29% → 51%+23 pts
- P219:08Cole Caufield Goal (41) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (59), Juraj Slafkovský (33)NYI 2 – 3 MTL · MTL 51% → 74% +23MTL 51% → 74%+23 pts
- P30:45Matthew Schaefer Goal (22) Slap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (46), Bo Horvat (21)NYI 3 – 3 MTL · NYI 25% → 49% +24NYI 25% → 49%+24 pts
- P33:17Kaiden Guhle Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Alexandre Carrier (14), Brendan Gallagher (16)NYI 3 – 4 MTL · MTL 51% → 76% +25MTL 51% → 76%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canadiens 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- MTL 52%
- ML NYI +100 / MTL -120
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.7 pts
- MTL: Elo 56.9%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- MTL -109
- NYI +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 3.2 – 3.3 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +4 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · MTL: Jacob Fowler: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +48 Elo | MTL 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 56.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MTL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.55th of 32 |
| 5th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.325th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+0.1 | Margin | +0.213th of 32 |
| 16th of 3250.0% | Shot share | 49.2%21st of 32 |
| 4th of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 88.8%26th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 32 |
| 7th of 3221–17 | Road vs home | 19–1512th of 32 |
| 21st of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 32 |
| 18th of 321497 | Elo rating | 150914th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 36–33 | 37–31 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–22 | 8–27 |
| Underdog | 32–11 | 29–4 |
| Overs–unders | 32–37 | 41–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 4–3 MTL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.