Columbus Blue Jackets at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each period. Above the line favors NYI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets
Islanders- Bo HorvatGoals1
- Anders LeeAssists1
- Bo HorvatPoints1
Scoring summary
- P11:25Bo Horvat Goal (29) Snap Shot, assists: Anders Lee (22), Adam Boqvist (2)0–1
Turning points
The play that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:25Bo Horvat Goal (29) Snap Shot, assists: Anders Lee (22), Adam Boqvist (2)CBJ 0 – 1 NYI · NYI 47% → 61% +15NYI 47% → 61%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jackets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- CBJ 53%
- ML CBJ -125 / NYI +105
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- CBJ: Elo 51.6%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -114
- NYI +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 3.3 – 3.2 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | NYI and CBJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +14 | −1 | CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.35 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +11 Elo | CBJ 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 54.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CBJ 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.921st of 32 |
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.97th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.2 | Margin | 0.014th of 32 |
| 12th of 3250.7% | Shot share | 49.8%16th of 32 |
| 15th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 90.6%5th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 32 |
| 14th of 3217–17 | Road vs home | 18–138th of 32 |
| 14th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 150020th of 32 |
| 8th of 321524 | Elo rating | 149319th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 39–30 | 36–34 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 10–17 | 4–22 |
| Underdog | 29–13 | 32–12 |
| Overs–unders | 35–34 | 33–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 4–6 NYI in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.