Seattle Kraken at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Kaapo KakkoGoals1
- Kaapo KakkoAssists1
- Kaapo KakkoPoints2
Blue Jackets- Cole SillingerGoals1
- Zach WerenskiAssists3
- Cole SillingerPoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:34Cole Sillinger Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathieu Olivier (11)2–5
- P29:33Kent Johnson Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Conor Garland (20), Adam Fantilli (31)2–4
- P28:31Kaapo Kakko Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Eeli Tolvanen (23), Brandon Montour (20)2–3
- P116:17Vince Dunn Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Kaapo Kakko (19), Freddy Gaudreau (16)1–3
- P115:16Mathieu Olivier Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Sillinger (25), Zach Werenski (55)0–3
- P18:58Damon Severson Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Cole Sillinger (24), Zach Werenski (54)0–2
- P12:48Danton Heinen Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Boone Jenner (22), Zach Werenski (53)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:48Danton Heinen Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Boone Jenner (22), Zach Werenski (53)SEA 0 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 61% → 75% +13CBJ 61% → 75%+13 pts
- P18:58Damon Severson Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Cole Sillinger (24), Zach Werenski (54)SEA 0 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 75% → 86% +11CBJ 75% → 86%+11 pts
- P115:16Mathieu Olivier Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Sillinger (25), Zach Werenski (55)SEA 0 – 3 CBJ · CBJ 86% → 94% +7CBJ 86% → 94%+7 pts
- P28:31Kaapo Kakko Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Eeli Tolvanen (23), Brandon Montour (20)SEA 2 – 3 CBJ · SEA 11% → 24% +13SEA 11% → 24%+13 pts
- P29:33Kent Johnson Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Conor Garland (20), Adam Fantilli (31)SEA 2 – 4 CBJ · CBJ 77% → 89% +13CBJ 77% → 89%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jackets 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- CBJ 62%
- ML SEA +150 / CBJ -180
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- CBJ: Elo 59.7%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -161
- SEA +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.9 – 3.6 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −13 | SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.33 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +68 Elo | CBJ 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 63.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 62.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CBJ 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.313th of 32 |
| 14th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.119th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.213th of 32 |
| 28th of 3246.5% | Shot share | 50.5%12th of 32 |
| 6th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 90.0%15th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 3214–18 | Road vs home | 19–1511th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321494 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 32 |
| 27th of 321472 | Elo rating | 15219th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 42–26 | 38–30 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–6 | 9–17 |
| Underdog | 37–20 | 29–13 |
| Overs–unders | 28–40 | 34–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 3–2 CBJ in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.