New Jersey Devils at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Jack HughesGoals2
- Jonas SiegenthalerAssists2
- Jack HughesPoints2
Stars- Wyatt JohnstonGoals2
- Jason RobertsonAssists2
- Wyatt JohnstonPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:00Dougie Hamilton Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: none6–4
- P313:08Mavrik Bourque Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Justin Hryckowian (14), Thomas Harley (26)5–4
- P36:46Timo Meier Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (29), Dawson Mercer (19)5–3
- P212:31Jason Robertson Goal (39) Snap Shot, assists: Nils Lundkvist (7), Wyatt Johnston (38)4–3
- P21:11Wyatt Johnston Goal (40) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (22), Jason Robertson (46)4–2
- P117:19Jack Hughes Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Luke Hughes (27), Jesper Bratt (39)4–1
- P112:52Connor Brown Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Arseny Gritsyuk (18), Jonas Siegenthaler (9)3–1
- P19:11Jesper Bratt Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonas Siegenthaler (8), Dougie Hamilton (22)2–1
- P18:16Wyatt Johnston Goal (39) Snap Shot, assists: Thomas Harley (25), Jason Robertson (45)1–1
- P14:12Jack Hughes Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Simon Nemec (14)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:16Wyatt Johnston Goal (39) Snap Shot, assists: Thomas Harley (25), Jason Robertson (45)NJ 1 – 1 DAL · DAL 43% → 59% +16DAL 43% → 59%+16 pts
- P19:11Jesper Bratt Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonas Siegenthaler (8), Dougie Hamilton (22)NJ 2 – 1 DAL · NJ 41% → 57% +16NJ 41% → 57%+16 pts
- P112:52Connor Brown Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Arseny Gritsyuk (18), Jonas Siegenthaler (9)NJ 3 – 1 DAL · NJ 58% → 73% +15NJ 58% → 73%+15 pts
- P212:31Jason Robertson Goal (39) Snap Shot, assists: Nils Lundkvist (7), Wyatt Johnston (38)NJ 4 – 3 DAL · DAL 18% → 35% +17DAL 18% → 35%+17 pts
- P36:46Timo Meier Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (29), Dawson Mercer (19)NJ 5 – 3 DAL · NJ 75% → 93% +18NJ 75% → 93%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 59%
- ML NJ +136 / DAL -162
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.8 pts
- DAL: Elo 66.2%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- DAL -146
- NJ +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 2.5 – 3.0 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1562 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +2 | NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +117 Elo | DAL 66.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 65.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 65.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.47th of 32 |
| 11th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.72nd of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−0.3 | Margin | +0.73rd of 32 |
| 6th of 3252.2% | Shot share | 49.2%20th of 32 |
| 19th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 90.4%6th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 32 |
| 13th of 3217–17 | Road vs home | 22–136th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 149631st of 32 |
| 22nd of 321480 | Elo rating | 15624th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 25–44 | 29–41 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–34 | 15–39 |
| Underdog | 16–10 | 14–2 |
| Overs–unders | 30–39 | 34–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 1–4 DAL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.