Florida Panthers at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Matthew TkachukGoals2
- Seth JonesAssists1
- Matthew TkachukPoints2
Islanders- Brayden SchennGoals1
- Brayden SchennAssists2
- Brayden SchennPoints3
Scoring summary
- P217:57Casey Cizikas Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Carson Soucy (7), Marc Gatcomb (4)2–5
- P217:00Emil Heineman Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Anders Lee (23), Brayden Schenn (20)2–4
- P214:52Simon Holmstrom Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Schaefer (34), Brayden Schenn (19)2–3
- P212:09Brayden Schenn Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Calum Ritchie (13), Matthew Schaefer (33)2–2
- P25:28Marc Gatcomb Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Pelech (11), Scott Mayfield (11)2–1
- P114:03Matthew Tkachuk Goal (12) Between Legs, assists: none2–0
- P18:06Matthew Tkachuk Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Seth Jones (20)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:06Matthew Tkachuk Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Seth Jones (20)FLA 1 – 0 NYI · FLA 36% → 52% +15FLA 36% → 52%+15 pts
- P114:03Matthew Tkachuk Goal (12) Between Legs, assists: noneFLA 2 – 0 NYI · FLA 54% → 69% +16FLA 54% → 69%+16 pts
- P25:28Marc Gatcomb Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Pelech (11), Scott Mayfield (11)FLA 2 – 1 NYI · NYI 25% → 42% +17NYI 25% → 42%+17 pts
- P212:09Brayden Schenn Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Calum Ritchie (13), Matthew Schaefer (33)FLA 2 – 2 NYI · NYI 39% → 60% +21NYI 39% → 60%+21 pts
- P214:52Simon Holmstrom Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Schaefer (34), Brayden Schenn (19)FLA 2 – 3 NYI · NYI 59% → 79% +19NYI 59% → 79%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 64%
- ML FLA +170 / NYI -205
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.3 pts
- NYI: Elo 54.2%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- NYI -181
- FLA +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 2.3 – 3.2 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −11 | +3 | FLA: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.26 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +29 Elo | NYI 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 58.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.923rd of 32 |
| 27th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.84th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.3 | Margin | +0.115th of 32 |
| 8th of 3251.5% | Shot share | 50.0%16th of 32 |
| 27th of 3288.6% | Save percentage | 90.7%3rd of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 20th of 3216–18 | Road vs home | 20–149th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 32 |
| 11th of 321514 | Elo rating | 149418th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 24–47 | 38–35 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–40 | 4–23 |
| Underdog | 15–7 | 34–12 |
| Overs–unders | 40–31 | 34–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 4–4 NYI in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.