Florida Panthers at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- A.J. GreerGoals1
- Tomas NosekAssists1
- A.J. GreerPoints1
Flames- Victor OlofssonGoals1
- Blake ColemanAssists2
- Blake ColemanPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:30Matt Coronato Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Matvei Gridin (7), Blake Coleman (12)1–4
- P316:59Morgan Frost Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Yegor Sharangovich (11), Zayne Parekh (3)1–3
- P34:17A.J. Greer Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Donovan Sebrango (3), Tomas Nosek (1)1–2
- P210:10Victor Olofsson Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Adam Klapka (10), Olli Maatta (6)0–2
- P27:44Joel Farabee Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Blake Coleman (11)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P27:44Joel Farabee Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Blake Coleman (11)FLA 0 – 1 CGY · CGY 51% → 70% +19CGY 51% → 70%+19 pts
- P210:10Victor Olofsson Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Adam Klapka (10), Olli Maatta (6)FLA 0 – 2 CGY · CGY 71% → 86% +15CGY 71% → 86%+15 pts
- P34:17A.J. Greer Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Donovan Sebrango (3), Tomas Nosek (1)FLA 1 – 2 CGY · FLA 7% → 23% +16FLA 7% → 23%+16 pts
- P316:59Morgan Frost Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Yegor Sharangovich (11), Zayne Parekh (3)FLA 1 – 3 CGY · CGY 95% → >99% +5CGY 95% → >99%+5 pts
- P317:30Matt Coronato Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Matvei Gridin (7), Blake Coleman (12)FLA 1 – 4 CGY · CGY >99% → >99% +0CGY >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flames 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- CGY 52%
- ML FLA -102 / CGY -118
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- CGY: Elo 50.7%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- CGY -107
- FLA +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 2.7 – 2.8 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1448 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | FLA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −12 | −2 | FLA: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.31 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +5 Elo | CGY 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 50.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CGY 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.532nd of 32 |
| 25th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.121st of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.630th of 32 |
| 7th of 3252.2% | Shot share | 49.4%18th of 32 |
| 28th of 3288.5% | Save percentage | 90.3%9th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 3–729th of 32 |
| 18th of 3216–17 | Road vs home | 17–1616th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 149530th of 32 |
| 11th of 321519 | Elo rating | 144829th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 23–45 | 36–32 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–39 | 7–8 |
| Underdog | 14–6 | 29–24 |
| Overs–unders | 39–29 | 35–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 2–3 CGY in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.