St. Louis Blues at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Dylan HollowayGoals1
- Robert ThomasAssists1
- Dylan HollowayPoints1
Flames- Connor ZaryGoals1
- Ryan StromeAssists1
- Connor ZaryPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Matvei Gridin Goal Snap Shot0–2
- SO0:00Joel Farabee Goal Wrist Shot0–2
- P23:47Dylan Holloway Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Jimmy Snuggerud (21), Robert Thomas (29)1–1
- P12:34Connor Zary Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Ryan Strome (10)0–1
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:34Connor Zary Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Ryan Strome (10)STL 0 – 1 CGY · CGY 44% → 59% +15CGY 44% → 59%+15 pts
- P23:47Dylan Holloway Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Jimmy Snuggerud (21), Robert Thomas (29)STL 1 – 1 CGY · STL 36% → 55% +18STL 36% → 55%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blues 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- STL 56%
- ML STL -142 / CGY +120
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- STL: Elo 51.5%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- STL -129
- CGY +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.9 – 2.6 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1446 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | −6 | STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · CGY: Devin Cooley: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +10 Elo | STL 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 51.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 2.532nd of 32 |
| 24th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.222nd of 32 |
| 30th of 32−0.7 | Margin | −0.730th of 32 |
| 26th of 3247.3% | Shot share | 49.3%20th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3288.9% | Save percentage | 90.2%10th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 2–831st of 32 |
| 28th of 3212–21 | Road vs home | 16–1619th of 32 |
| 16th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 149629th of 32 |
| 24th of 321478 | Elo rating | 144629th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 37–30 | 35–32 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–19 | 7–8 |
| Underdog | 35–11 | 28–24 |
| Overs–unders | 32–35 | 35–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 8–0 CGY in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.