Florida Panthers at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Matthew TkachukGoals1
- Carter VerhaegheAssists2
- Matthew TkachukPoints2
Canucks- Elias PetterssonGoals2
- Brock BoeserAssists3
- Marco RossiPoints3
Scoring summary
- P314:25Drew O'Connor Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Linus Karlsson (17), Tom Willander (14)2–5
- P214:27Aatu Räty Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Evander Kane (17), Elias Pettersson (7)2–4
- P211:28Sam Bennett Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (13), Carter Verhaeghe (29)2–3
- P117:46Marco Rossi Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Brock Boeser (19), Liam Ohgren (7)1–3
- P113:40Elias Pettersson Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Boeser (18), Marco Rossi (16)1–2
- P111:41Matthew Tkachuk Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (28)1–1
- P13:49Elias Pettersson Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Marco Rossi (15), Brock Boeser (17)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:41Matthew Tkachuk Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (28)FLA 1 – 1 VAN · FLA 41% → 57% +16FLA 41% → 57%+16 pts
- P113:40Elias Pettersson Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Boeser (18), Marco Rossi (16)FLA 1 – 2 VAN · VAN 43% → 59% +16VAN 43% → 59%+16 pts
- P117:46Marco Rossi Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Brock Boeser (19), Liam Ohgren (7)FLA 1 – 3 VAN · VAN 60% → 76% +15VAN 60% → 76%+15 pts
- P211:28Sam Bennett Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (13), Carter Verhaeghe (29)FLA 2 – 3 VAN · FLA 18% → 35% +17FLA 18% → 35%+17 pts
- P214:27Aatu Räty Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Evander Kane (17), Elias Pettersson (7)FLA 2 – 4 VAN · VAN 66% → 84% +17VAN 66% → 84%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 58%
- ML FLA -155 / VAN +130
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.9 pts
- FLA: Elo 62.2%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- FLA -140
- VAN +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 3.5 – 3.0 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1411 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | −7 | FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +87 Elo | FLA 62.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 61.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 61.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.631st of 32 |
| 26th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.732nd of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.3 | Margin | −1.132nd of 32 |
| 6th of 3252.2% | Shot share | 47.0%27th of 32 |
| 28th of 3288.5% | Save percentage | 88.4%29th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 32 |
| 17th of 3215–16 | Road vs home | 7–2632nd of 32 |
| 3rd of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 32 |
| 9th of 321519 | Elo rating | 141132nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 22–44 | 32–34 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–38 | 1–9 |
| Underdog | 13–6 | 31–25 |
| Overs–unders | 38–28 | 37–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 1–4 VAN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.