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Florida Panthers at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast

FinalESPN+, Scripps Sports

Away

Panthers

34-31-3

4–0

at

Home

Oilers

34-27-9

FLA 41%EDM 59%

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Rogers Place · ESPN+, Scripps Sports

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.

EDM favored FLA favored4 scoring plays
P1P2P3EDM50%FLA

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Panthers
Oilers

    Scoring summary

    • P315:23Carter Verhaeghe Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (14), Sam Bennett (28)4–0
    • P214:21Anton Lundell Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (27), Evan Rodrigues (19)3–0
    • P119:02A.J. Greer Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Mike Benning (3), Evan Rodrigues (18)2–0
    • P111:12Cole Reinhardt Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mike Benning (2)1–0

    Turning points

    The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

    1. P111:12Cole Reinhardt Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mike Benning (2)FLA 1 – 0 EDM · FLA 42% → 58% +16
    2. P119:02A.J. Greer Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Mike Benning (3), Evan Rodrigues (18)FLA 2 – 0 EDM · FLA 60% → 75% +16
    3. P214:21Anton Lundell Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (27), Evan Rodrigues (19)FLA 3 – 0 EDM · FLA 83% → 94% +10
    4. P315:23Carter Verhaeghe Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (14), Sam Bennett (28)FLA 4 – 0 EDM · FLA >99% → >99% +0

    The pick

    Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

    Oilers 59%

    LeanMiss
    FLA 41%EDM 59%

    Forecast Elo ratings alone

    How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

    Market
    EDM 59%
    ML FLA +136 / EDM -162
    Pre-line forecast
    EDM 60%
    Elo + market-implied
    Elo ratings
    EDM 57%
    Ratings vs. market
    −2.2 pts
    EDM: Elo 57.2%, market 59.3%
    Fair odds
    EDM -146
    FLA +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
    Pregame projection
    FLA 3.0 – 3.5 EDM
    Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

    How the number is built

    Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

    FactorFLAEDMWhy
    Team rating15131528Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
    Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
    Starting goalies+5+4FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · EDM: Connor Ingram: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts)
    Elo ratingsEDM +50 EloEDM 57.2%
    Market-implied ratingsEDM 61.2%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
    Pre-line forecastEDM 60.4%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
    ForecastEDM 59.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

    Tale of the tape

    This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

    Try another venue →
    Florida Panthers and Edmonton Oilers compared, with each team's league rank
    FLAStatEDM
    19th of 323.0Goals scored3.54th of 32
    26th of 323.4Goals allowed3.428th of 32
    24th of 32−0.4Margin+0.115th of 32
    7th of 3252.2%Shot share52.4%5th of 32
    29th of 3288.3%Save percentage88.1%31st of 32
    21st of 324–6Last 106–47th of 32
    18th of 3215–17Road vs home18–1514th of 32
    2nd of 321504Opponent Elo149432nd of 32
    11th of 321513Elo rating15286th of 32

    Rating history

    Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

    PanthersOilers
    1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

    Recent form

    Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

    Against the line

    How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

    This seasonFLAEDM
    Puck line22–4527–42
    Last 103–75–5
    Favorite9–3920–37
    Underdog13–67–5
    Overs–unders39–2843–26
    Overs–unders, last 105–57–3

    Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

    Head to head

    FLA 12–6 EDM in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 18.