San Jose Sharks at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Kiefer SherwoodGoals1
- Kiefer SherwoodAssists1
- Dmitry OrlovPoints2
Oilers- Zach HymanGoals1
- Adam HenriqueAssists2
- Adam HenriquePoints2
Scoring summary
- P38:12Zach Hyman Goal (29) Backhand, assists: Matt Savoie (17), Mattias Ekholm (31)3–5
- P34:49Max Jones Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Henrique (10), Trent Frederic (2)3–4
- P214:36Kiefer Sherwood Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Dmitry Orlov (26)3–3
- P28:17Pavol Regenda Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Mario Ferraro (13), Adam Gaudette (8)2–3
- P114:18Vasily Podkolzin Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Henrique (9)1–3
- P111:15Connor Murphy Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Dickinson (8), Jack Roslovic (12)1–2
- P110:00Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (78), Evan Bouchard (59)1–1
- P17:24Dmitry Orlov Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Wennberg (31), Kiefer Sherwood (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:24Dmitry Orlov Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Wennberg (31), Kiefer Sherwood (8)SJ 1 – 0 EDM · SJ 41% → 57% +15SJ 41% → 57%+15 pts
- P110:00Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (78), Evan Bouchard (59)SJ 1 – 1 EDM · EDM 43% → 59% +16EDM 43% → 59%+16 pts
- P111:15Connor Murphy Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Dickinson (8), Jack Roslovic (12)SJ 1 – 2 EDM · EDM 58% → 73% +15EDM 58% → 73%+15 pts
- P214:36Kiefer Sherwood Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Dmitry Orlov (26)SJ 3 – 3 EDM · SJ 24% → 44% +20SJ 24% → 44%+20 pts
- P34:49Max Jones Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Henrique (10), Trent Frederic (2)SJ 3 – 4 EDM · EDM 55% → 80% +25EDM 55% → 80%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 59%
- ML SJ +136 / EDM -162
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.7 pts
- EDM: Elo 66.0%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- EDM -146
- SJ +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 3.0 – 3.5 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1440 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +10 | +5 | SJ: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.26 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · EDM: Connor Ingram: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +115 Elo | EDM 66.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 64.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 64.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.57th of 32 |
| 31st of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.428th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.4 | Margin | +0.116th of 32 |
| 30th of 3246.1% | Shot share | 52.4%5th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3289.1% | Save percentage | 88.0%31st of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 19th of 3215–18 | Road vs home | 17–1514th of 32 |
| 4th of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 149530th of 32 |
| 30th of 321440 | Elo rating | 15268th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 42–23 | 26–42 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 19–37 |
| Underdog | 40–19 | 7–5 |
| Overs–unders | 32–33 | 42–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 2–7 EDM in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 9.