Seattle Kraken at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Jordan EberleGoals1
- Jordan EberleAssists1
- Jordan EberlePoints2
Panthers- Noah GregorGoals1
- Noah GregorAssists1
- Noah GregorPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Vinnie Hinostroza Goal Backhand0–1
- P316:38Bobby McMann Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: none4–4
- P316:24Jordan Eberle Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: none3–4
- P314:17Matty Beniers Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Montour (21), Adam Larsson (15)2–4
- P312:21Noah Gregor Goal (2) , assists: none1–4
- P38:10Ryker Evans Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (28), Berkly Catton (8)1–3
- P37:37Carter Verhaeghe Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–3
- P35:16Eetu Luostarinen Goal (9) Deflected, assists: Vinnie Hinostroza (9), Evan Rodrigues (20)0–2
- P22:32Nolan Foote Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Gregor (3), Gustav Forsling (22)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P22:32Nolan Foote Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Gregor (3), Gustav Forsling (22)SEA 0 – 1 FLA · FLA 53% → 71% +17FLA 53% → 71%+17 pts
- P35:16Eetu Luostarinen Goal (9) Deflected, assists: Vinnie Hinostroza (9), Evan Rodrigues (20)SEA 0 – 2 FLA · FLA 79% → 94% +15FLA 79% → 94%+15 pts
- P37:37Carter Verhaeghe Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: noneSEA 0 – 3 FLA · FLA 95% → >99% +4FLA 95% → >99%+4 pts
- P316:24Jordan Eberle Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: noneSEA 3 – 4 FLA · SEA <1% → 6% +6SEA <1% → 6%+6 pts
- P316:38Bobby McMann Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: noneSEA 4 – 4 FLA · SEA 6% → 49% +43SEA 6% → 49%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 54%
- ML SEA +110 / FLA -130
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.1 pts
- FLA: Elo 62.4%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- FLA -119
- SEA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.6 – 2.9 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +8 | SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +88 Elo | FLA 62.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 58.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.020th of 32 |
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.327th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.324th of 32 |
| 28th of 3246.4% | Shot share | 52.0%7th of 32 |
| 6th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 88.5%28th of 32 |
| 28th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 23rd of 3214–19 | Road vs home | 18–1615th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 15043rd of 32 |
| 27th of 321469 | Elo rating | 151511th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 42–27 | 23–46 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–6 | 9–39 |
| Underdog | 37–21 | 14–7 |
| Overs–unders | 29–40 | 39–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 3–2 FLA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.