Minnesota Wild at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Marcus FolignoGoals1
- Jeff PetryAssists1
- Marcus FolignoPoints1
Panthers- Matthew TkachukGoals1
- Matthew TkachukAssists1
- Matthew TkachukPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:55Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Faber (34)3–2
- P318:47Aaron Ekblad Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Seth Jones (19), Matthew Tkachuk (15)2–2
- P30:42Matthew Tkachuk Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Gustav Forsling (23), Sam Bennett (29)2–1
- P218:25Ryan Hartman Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–0
- P22:47Marcus Foligno Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Yakov Trenin (15), Jeff Petry (9)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P22:47Marcus Foligno Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Yakov Trenin (15), Jeff Petry (9)MIN 1 – 0 FLA · MIN 58% → 75% +17MIN 58% → 75%+17 pts
- P218:25Ryan Hartman Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: noneMIN 2 – 0 FLA · MIN 78% → 91% +14MIN 78% → 91%+14 pts
- P30:42Matthew Tkachuk Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Gustav Forsling (23), Sam Bennett (29)MIN 2 – 1 FLA · FLA 8% → 22% +14FLA 8% → 22%+14 pts
- P318:47Aaron Ekblad Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Seth Jones (19), Matthew Tkachuk (15)MIN 2 – 2 FLA · FLA <1% → 49% +48FLA <1% → 49%+48 pts
- P319:55Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Faber (34)MIN 3 – 2 FLA · MIN 50% → 100% +50MIN 50% → 100%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 60%
- ML MIN -166 / FLA +140
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.6 pts
- MIN: Elo 47.3%, market 60.0%
- Fair odds
- MIN -150
- FLA +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.5 – 3.0 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | −12 | MIN: Jesper Wallstedt: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) · FLA: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.31 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +18 Elo | FLA 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 50.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 60.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.020th of 32 |
| 6th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.327th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.4 | Margin | −0.324th of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.4% | Shot share | 51.9%7th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3291.1% | Save percentage | 88.4%28th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 5th of 3220–14 | Road vs home | 19–1614th of 32 |
| 25th of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 15043rd of 32 |
| 7th of 321527 | Elo rating | 151611th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 36–36 | 23–47 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 12–30 | 9–40 |
| Underdog | 24–6 | 14–7 |
| Overs–unders | 39–33 | 40–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 3–2 FLA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.