Minnesota Wild at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Vladimir TarasenkoGoals1
- Vladimir TarasenkoAssists1
- Vladimir TarasenkoPoints2
Lightning- Darren RaddyshGoals1
- Darren RaddyshAssists2
- Darren RaddyshPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:36Pontus Holmberg Goal (11) , assists: Ryan McDonagh (9)3–6
- P318:42Brandon Hagel Goal (33) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Paul (7)3–5
- P317:07Erik Cernak Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Charle-Edouard D'Astous (18), Andrei Vasilevskiy (2)3–4
- P215:19Darren Raddysh Goal (20) Slap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (80), Jake Guentzel (42)3–3
- P212:27Jake Guentzel Goal (32) Snap Shot, assists: Darren Raddysh (44), Gage Goncalves (17)3–2
- P29:51Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (30), Ryan Hartman (16)3–1
- P25:45Brayden Point Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (36), Darren Raddysh (43)2–1
- P118:49Brock Faber Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (21), Bobby Brink (15)2–0
- P12:28Mats Zuccarello Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (64), Matt Boldy (38)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:45Brayden Point Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (36), Darren Raddysh (43)MIN 2 – 1 TB · TB 20% → 36% +16TB 20% → 36%+16 pts
- P29:51Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (30), Ryan Hartman (16)MIN 3 – 1 TB · MIN 65% → 82% +17MIN 65% → 82%+17 pts
- P212:27Jake Guentzel Goal (32) Snap Shot, assists: Darren Raddysh (44), Gage Goncalves (17)MIN 3 – 2 TB · TB 17% → 34% +17TB 17% → 34%+17 pts
- P215:19Darren Raddysh Goal (20) Slap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (80), Jake Guentzel (42)MIN 3 – 3 TB · TB 33% → 55% +22TB 33% → 55%+22 pts
- P317:07Erik Cernak Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Charle-Edouard D'Astous (18), Andrei Vasilevskiy (2)MIN 3 – 4 TB · TB 52% → 96% +44TB 52% → 96%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TB 57%
- ML MIN +124 / TB -148
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.9 pts
- TB: Elo 61.2%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- TB -134
- MIN +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.0 – 3.5 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1574 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +7 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +79 Elo | TB 61.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 65.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 64.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.62nd of 32 |
| 5th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 2.83rd of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.4 | Margin | +0.92nd of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.5% | Shot share | 51.1%10th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3291.2% | Save percentage | 90.3%9th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3220–13 | Road vs home | 19–127th of 32 |
| 28th of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 150020th of 32 |
| 7th of 321531 | Elo rating | 15742nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 36–35 | 34–35 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–30 | 23–35 |
| Underdog | 24–5 | 11–0 |
| Overs–unders | 38–33 | 37–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 3–2 TB in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.