Tampa Bay Lightning at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Ryan McDonaghGoals1
- Nikita KucherovAssists1
- Ryan McDonaghPoints1
Flames- Ryan StromeGoals1
- Kevin BahlAssists1
- Mikael BacklundPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT0:26Ryan Strome Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Matvei Gridin (8), Kevin Bahl (13)3–4
- P315:40Pontus Holmberg Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Yanni Gourde (17)3–3
- P211:47Darren Raddysh Goal (19) Slap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (79), J.J. Moser (20)2–3
- P28:28Mikael Backlund Goal (16) Slap Shot, assists: Blake Coleman (13), Hunter Brzustewicz (2)1–3
- P116:52Morgan Frost Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Coronato (18)1–2
- P116:25Victor Olofsson Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Yegor Sharangovich (12), Zach Whitecloud (10)1–1
- P17:25Ryan McDonagh Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Gage Goncalves (16)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:52Morgan Frost Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Coronato (18)TB 1 – 2 CGY · CGY 41% → 58% +17CGY 41% → 58%+17 pts
- P28:28Mikael Backlund Goal (16) Slap Shot, assists: Blake Coleman (13), Hunter Brzustewicz (2)TB 1 – 3 CGY · CGY 62% → 79% +17CGY 62% → 79%+17 pts
- P211:47Darren Raddysh Goal (19) Slap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (79), J.J. Moser (20)TB 2 – 3 CGY · TB 19% → 37% +18TB 19% → 37%+18 pts
- P315:40Pontus Holmberg Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Yanni Gourde (17)TB 3 – 3 CGY · TB 10% → 53% +43TB 10% → 53%+43 pts
- OT0:26Ryan Strome Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Matvei Gridin (8), Kevin Bahl (13)TB 3 – 4 CGY · CGY 47% → 89% +42CGY 47% → 89%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- TB 61%
- ML TB -175 / CGY +145
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.2 pts
- TB: Elo 53.8%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- TB -156
- CGY +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.6 – 2.9 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1576 | 1453 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | TB on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −34 | −2 | TB: Jonas Johansson: team allows 0.85 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · CGY: Devin Cooley: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +26 Elo | TB 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 61.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 60.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 323.6 | Goals scored | 2.532nd of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.118th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+0.9 | Margin | −0.629th of 32 |
| 11th of 3251.1% | Shot share | 49.5%17th of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 90.3%9th of 32 |
| 11th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 2nd of 3223–13 | Road vs home | 18–1614th of 32 |
| 15th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 149531st of 32 |
| 2nd of 321576 | Elo rating | 145329th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 34–34 | 37–32 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 23–34 | 8–8 |
| Underdog | 11–0 | 29–24 |
| Overs–unders | 36–32 | 35–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 3–2 CGY in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.