Tampa Bay Lightning at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Nikita KucherovGoals1
- Nikita KucherovAssists2
- Nikita KucherovPoints3
Canucks- Liam OhgrenGoals1
- Marco RossiAssists2
- Marco RossiPoints2
Scoring summary
- P310:35Brandon Hagel Goal (32) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (76), J.J. Moser (18)6–2
- P37:36Anthony Cirelli Goal (17) Deflected, assists: Brandon Hagel (33), Erik Cernak (8)5–2
- P37:04Linus Karlsson Goal (13) Batted, assists: Marco Rossi (18)4–2
- P212:06Liam Ohgren Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Boeser (20), Marco Rossi (17)4–1
- P25:31Nikita Kucherov Goal (38) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Cernak (7), Anthony Cirelli (29)4–0
- P24:16Yanni Gourde Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Darren Raddysh (42), Pontus Holmberg (11)3–0
- P20:49Darren Raddysh Goal (18) Slap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (75), Anthony Cirelli (28)2–0
- P117:37Jake Guentzel Goal (30) Tip-In, assists: Charle-Edouard D'Astous (17), Ryan McDonagh (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:37Jake Guentzel Goal (30) Tip-In, assists: Charle-Edouard D'Astous (17), Ryan McDonagh (8)TB 1 – 0 VAN · TB 71% → 84% +13TB 71% → 84%+13 pts
- P20:49Darren Raddysh Goal (18) Slap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (75), Anthony Cirelli (28)TB 2 – 0 VAN · TB 83% → 92% +9TB 83% → 92%+9 pts
- P24:16Yanni Gourde Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Darren Raddysh (42), Pontus Holmberg (11)TB 3 – 0 VAN · TB 93% → 97% +5TB 93% → 97%+5 pts
- P37:04Linus Karlsson Goal (13) Batted, assists: Marco Rossi (18)TB 4 – 2 VAN · VAN <1% → 3% +3VAN <1% → 3%+3 pts
- P37:36Anthony Cirelli Goal (17) Deflected, assists: Brandon Hagel (33), Erik Cernak (8)TB 5 – 2 VAN · TB 97% → >99% +3TB 97% → >99%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- TB 74%
- ML TB -340 / VAN +270
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- TB: Elo 67.2%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- TB -286
- VAN +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.0 – 2.5 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1569 | 1417 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −5 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +125 Elo | TB 67.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 72.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 71.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 74.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 323.6 | Goals scored | 2.630th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.732nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+0.8 | Margin | −1.132nd of 32 |
| 11th of 3251.0% | Shot share | 47.0%27th of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 88.4%29th of 32 |
| 28th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3221–13 | Road vs home | 8–2632nd of 32 |
| 12th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321569 | Elo rating | 141732nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 32–34 | 33–34 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 21–34 | 1–9 |
| Underdog | 11–0 | 32–25 |
| Overs–unders | 34–32 | 38–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 3–2 VAN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.