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Florida Panthers at New York Rangers, NHL forecast

FinalScripps Sports, MSG, NHL Net

Away

Panthers

35-35-3

1–3

at

Home

Rangers

30-35-9

FLA 38%NYR 62%

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Madison Square Garden · Scripps Sports, MSG, NHL Net

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.

NYR favored FLA favored4 scoring plays
P1P2P3NYR50%FLA

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Rangers

Scoring summary

  • P319:19Mackie Samoskevich Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Boqvist (8), Mike Benning (4)1–3
  • P316:06Adam Fox Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Borgen (9)0–3
  • P311:14Conor Sheary Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (31)0–2
  • P35:10Adam Sykora Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Adam Fox (36), Noah Laba (13)0–1

Turning points

The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P35:10Adam Sykora Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Adam Fox (36), Noah Laba (13)FLA 0 – 1 NYR · NYR 56% → 81% +25
  2. P311:14Conor Sheary Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (31)FLA 0 – 2 NYR · NYR 86% → 98% +12
  3. P316:06Adam Fox Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Borgen (9)FLA 0 – 3 NYR · NYR >99% → >99% +0
  4. P319:19Mackie Samoskevich Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Boqvist (8), Mike Benning (4)FLA 1 – 3 NYR · FLA 0% → <1% +0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Rangers 62%

SolidHit
FLA 38%NYR 62%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.

Market
NYR 62%
ML FLA +154 / NYR -185
Pre-line forecast
NYR 55%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
NYR 53%
Ratings vs. market
−9.7 pts
NYR: Elo 52.5%, market 62.2%
Fair odds
NYR -165
FLA +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
FLA 2.4 – 3.1 NYR
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorFLANYRWhy
Team rating15101466Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Rest−30—FLA on the second night of a back-to-back
Starting goalies+8+4FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsNYR +17 EloNYR 52.5%
Market-implied ratingsNYR 55.6%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastNYR 54.9%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastNYR 62.2%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Florida Panthers and New York Rangers compared, with each team's league rank
FLAStatNYR
20th of 323.0Goals scored2.826th of 32
27th of 323.3Goals allowed3.222nd of 32
25th of 32−0.4Margin−0.323rd of 32
10th of 3251.3%Shot share46.4%30th of 32
27th of 3288.6%Save percentage90.2%8th of 32
17th of 325–5Last 104–621st of 32
20th of 3216–19Road vs home10–2530th of 32
3rd of 321504Opponent Elo15027th of 32
13th of 321510Elo rating146628th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

PanthersRangers
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonFLANYR
Puck line24–4836–37
Last 104–65–5
Favorite9–408–22
Underdog15–828–15
Overs–unders41–3135–38
Overs–unders, last 105–55–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

FLA 8–5 NYR in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 13.