New York Rangers at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Mika ZibanejadGoals2
- Alexis LafreniereAssists2
- Alexis LafrenierePoints3
Maple Leafs- Dakota JoshuaGoals1
- Matias MaccelliAssists2
- Dakota JoshuaPoints2
Scoring summary
- P313:04Mika Zibanejad Goal (32) Backhand, assists: Gabe Perreault (14), Alexis Lafrenière (29)3–4
- P311:57John Tavares Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–4
- P218:01Mika Zibanejad Goal (31) Snap Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (28), Adam Fox (34)2–3
- P210:16Alexis Lafrenière Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (28), Adam Fox (33)1–3
- P25:41Dakota Joshua Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Matias Maccelli (23), Joseph Woll (1)0–3
- P112:08Nicholas Robertson Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Max Domi (23)0–2
- P15:15Jake McCabe Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Matias Maccelli (22), Dakota Joshua (6)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:15Jake McCabe Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Matias Maccelli (22), Dakota Joshua (6)NYR 0 – 1 TOR · TOR 46% → 61% +15TOR 46% → 61%+15 pts
- P112:08Nicholas Robertson Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Max Domi (23)NYR 0 – 2 TOR · TOR 62% → 76% +14TOR 62% → 76%+14 pts
- P218:01Mika Zibanejad Goal (31) Snap Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (28), Adam Fox (34)NYR 2 – 3 TOR · NYR 13% → 30% +17NYR 13% → 30%+17 pts
- P311:57John Tavares Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNYR 2 – 4 TOR · TOR 83% → 97% +14TOR 83% → 97%+14 pts
- P313:04Mika Zibanejad Goal (32) Backhand, assists: Gabe Perreault (14), Alexis Lafrenière (29)NYR 3 – 4 TOR · NYR 2% → 15% +13NYR 2% → 15%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 54%
- ML NYR -130 / TOR +110
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.3 pts
- NYR: Elo 48.0%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- NYR -119
- TOR +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.4 – 3.1 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −7 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +14 Elo | TOR 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 50.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.114th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.530th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.425th of 32 |
| 30th of 3245.8% | Shot share | 45.7%31st of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 90.0%15th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 14th of 3218–18 | Road vs home | 17–2024th of 32 |
| 7th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 15061st of 32 |
| 28th of 321465 | Elo rating | 148721st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 35–36 | 30–42 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–21 | 7–25 |
| Underdog | 28–15 | 23–17 |
| Overs–unders | 33–38 | 40–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 3–5 TOR in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.