Toronto Maple Leafs at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Matthew KniesGoals2
- John TavaresAssists3
- John TavaresPoints3
Bruins- Elias LindholmGoals1
- Henri JokiharjuAssists1
- Elias LindholmPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:38Matthew Knies Goal (20) Poke, assists: William Nylander (42), John Tavares (35)4–2
- P35:08Charlie McAvoy Goal (10) Deflected, assists: David Pastrnak (59), Pavel Zacha (29)3–2
- P33:00William Nylander Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: John Tavares (34), Jake McCabe (19)3–1
- P218:08Max Domi Goal (11) Backhand, assists: John Tavares (33), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (28)2–1
- P27:27Matthew Knies Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–1
- P15:04Elias Lindholm Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Geekie (28), Henri Jokiharju (11)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:04Elias Lindholm Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Geekie (28), Henri Jokiharju (11)TOR 0 – 1 BOS · BOS 64% → 77% +13BOS 64% → 77%+13 pts
- P27:27Matthew Knies Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: noneTOR 1 – 1 BOS · TOR 22% → 39% +17TOR 22% → 39%+17 pts
- P218:08Max Domi Goal (11) Backhand, assists: John Tavares (33), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (28)TOR 2 – 1 BOS · TOR 41% → 65% +24TOR 41% → 65%+24 pts
- P33:00William Nylander Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: John Tavares (34), Jake McCabe (19)TOR 3 – 1 BOS · TOR 69% → 88% +19TOR 69% → 88%+19 pts
- P35:08Charlie McAvoy Goal (10) Deflected, assists: David Pastrnak (59), Pavel Zacha (29)TOR 3 – 2 BOS · BOS 10% → 29% +19BOS 10% → 29%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bruins 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 64%
- ML TOR +170 / BOS -205
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.4 pts
- BOS: Elo 58.1%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- BOS -181
- TOR +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 2.8 – 3.7 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +7 | TOR: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +57 Elo | BOS 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 63.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 62.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.311th of 32 |
| 30th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.117th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.4 | Margin | +0.210th of 32 |
| 31st of 3245.5% | Shot share | 47.6%25th of 32 |
| 14th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 90.2%11th of 32 |
| 32nd of 322–8 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 30th of 3212–22 | Road vs home | 26–101st of 32 |
| 1st of 321506 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 32 |
| 21st of 321482 | Elo rating | 150415th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 29–42 | 45–25 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 7–25 | 11–13 |
| Underdog | 22–17 | 34–12 |
| Overs–unders | 40–31 | 38–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 6–11 BOS in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 17.
- Nov 11TOR 3 @ BOS 5Picked TOR 55%Miss
- Nov 8BOS 5 @ TOR 3Picked TOR 64%Miss
- Feb 25TOR 5 @ BOS 4Picked TOR 59%Hit
- Jan 4BOS 4 @ TOR 6Picked TOR 56%Hit
- Nov 5BOS 0 @ TOR 4Picked TOR 53%Hit
- Oct 26TOR 3 @ BOS 4Picked TOR 52%Miss
- May 4TOR 1 @ BOS 2PlayoffsPicked BOS 56%Hit
- May 2BOS 1 @ TOR 2PlayoffsPicked TOR 54%Hit