Chicago Blackhawks at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Nick LardisGoals1
- Tyler BertuzziAssists1
- Nick LardisPoints1
Rangers- Jonny BrodzinskiGoals2
- J.T. MillerAssists2
- J.T. MillerPoints3
Scoring summary
- P316:00Jonny Brodzinski Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Taylor Raddysh (10), Drew Fortescue (1)1–6
- P313:17Alexis Lafrenière Goal (22) Tip-In, assists: Adam Fox (35), J.T. Miller (30)1–5
- P216:07Jonny Brodzinski Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Will Borgen (8), Jaroslav Chmelar (1)1–4
- P28:20Adam Sykora Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Will Cuylle (17), Vincent Trocheck (34)1–3
- P25:24Matthew Robertson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (29)1–2
- P118:32J.T. Miller Goal (15) Deflected, assists: Conor Sheary (10), Braden Schneider (14)1–1
- P117:34Nick Lardis Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (24), Alex Vlasic (18)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:34Nick Lardis Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (24), Alex Vlasic (18)CHI 1 – 0 NYR · CHI 41% → 58% +17CHI 41% → 58%+17 pts
- P118:32J.T. Miller Goal (15) Deflected, assists: Conor Sheary (10), Braden Schneider (14)CHI 1 – 1 NYR · NYR 42% → 59% +17NYR 42% → 59%+17 pts
- P25:24Matthew Robertson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (29)CHI 1 – 2 NYR · NYR 58% → 76% +17NYR 58% → 76%+17 pts
- P28:20Adam Sykora Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Will Cuylle (17), Vincent Trocheck (34)CHI 1 – 3 NYR · NYR 76% → 89% +13NYR 76% → 89%+13 pts
- P216:07Jonny Brodzinski Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Will Borgen (8), Jaroslav Chmelar (1)CHI 1 – 4 NYR · NYR 91% → 97% +6NYR 91% → 97%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 61%
- ML CHI +145 / NYR -175
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.0 pts
- NYR: Elo 67.9%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- NYR -156
- CHI +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.9 – 3.6 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1414 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −16 | +1 | CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.39 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · NYR: Dylan Garand: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +130 Elo | NYR 67.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 63.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 64.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 2.826th of 32 |
| 24th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.223rd of 32 |
| 31st of 32−0.6 | Margin | −0.427th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3244.7% | Shot share | 46.2%30th of 32 |
| 15th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 90.1%11th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 28th of 3214–22 | Road vs home | 9–2531st of 32 |
| 9th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 15035th of 32 |
| 31st of 321414 | Elo rating | 146328th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 46–26 | 35–37 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 7–22 |
| Underdog | 46–23 | 28–15 |
| Overs–unders | 30–42 | 34–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 2–3 NYR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.