Chicago Blackhawks at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Connor BedardGoals1
- Louis CrevierAssists1
- Connor BedardPoints1
Flyers- Christian DvorakGoals1
- Owen TippettAssists2
- Christian DvorakPoints2
Scoring summary
- P219:35Christian Dvorak Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Owen Tippett (20), Noah Cates (24)1–5
- P212:41Noah Cates Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Matvei Michkov (22), Alex Bump (3)1–4
- P211:11Connor Bedard Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: Anton Frondell (2), Louis Crevier (13)1–3
- P25:14Denver Barkey Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Trevor Zegras (35), Owen Tippett (19)0–3
- P12:33Sean Couturier Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Luke Glendening (7)0–2
- P10:48Alex Bump Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (29)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:48Alex Bump Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (29)CHI 0 – 1 PHI · PHI 56% → 70% +14PHI 56% → 70%+14 pts
- P12:33Sean Couturier Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Luke Glendening (7)CHI 0 – 2 PHI · PHI 70% → 82% +11PHI 70% → 82%+11 pts
- P25:14Denver Barkey Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Trevor Zegras (35), Owen Tippett (19)CHI 0 – 3 PHI · PHI 86% → 94% +8PHI 86% → 94%+8 pts
- P211:11Connor Bedard Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: Anton Frondell (2), Louis Crevier (13)CHI 1 – 3 PHI · CHI 5% → 12% +8CHI 5% → 12%+8 pts
- P212:41Noah Cates Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Matvei Michkov (22), Alex Bump (3)CHI 1 – 4 PHI · PHI 88% → 96% +8PHI 88% → 96%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flyers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 56%
- ML CHI +120 / PHI -142
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.3 pts
- PHI: Elo 59.6%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -129
- CHI +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.6 – 2.9 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1418 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | −14 | CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.35 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +68 Elo | PHI 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 58.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 2.922nd of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.115th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−0.6 | Margin | −0.119th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3244.8% | Shot share | 49.5%17th of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 88.9%23rd of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 26th of 3214–21 | Road vs home | 15–2028th of 32 |
| 8th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 15044th of 32 |
| 31st of 321418 | Elo rating | 147426th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 46–25 | 45–25 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 9–11 |
| Underdog | 46–22 | 36–14 |
| Overs–unders | 29–42 | 35–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 2–3 PHI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.