Philadelphia Flyers at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Noah CatesGoals1
- Rasmus RistolainenAssists2
- Noah CatesPoints2
Kings- Artemi PanarinGoals1
- Artemi PanarinAssists1
- Artemi PanarinPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Matvei Michkov Goal Wrist Shot2–0
- SO0:00Trevor Zegras Goal Wrist Shot2–0
- P310:28Artemi Panarin Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Scott Laughton (6)3–3
- P26:59Travis Sanheim Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Cates (23), Matvei Michkov (20)3–2
- P24:12Noah Cates Goal (14) Backhand, assists: Matvei Michkov (19), Rasmus Ristolainen (7)2–2
- P20:47Anze Kopitar Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandt Clarke (30), Artemi Panarin (49)1–2
- P20:26Travis Konecny Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Ristolainen (6), Alex Bump (2)1–1
- P119:31Quinton Byfield Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor Moore (12), Alex Laferriere (16)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:26Travis Konecny Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Ristolainen (6), Alex Bump (2)PHI 1 – 1 LA · PHI 24% → 39% +16PHI 24% → 39%+16 pts
- P20:47Anze Kopitar Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandt Clarke (30), Artemi Panarin (49)PHI 1 – 2 LA · LA 61% → 76% +16LA 61% → 76%+16 pts
- P24:12Noah Cates Goal (14) Backhand, assists: Matvei Michkov (19), Rasmus Ristolainen (7)PHI 2 – 2 LA · PHI 23% → 40% +17PHI 23% → 40%+17 pts
- P26:59Travis Sanheim Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Cates (23), Matvei Michkov (20)PHI 3 – 2 LA · PHI 40% → 60% +19PHI 40% → 60%+19 pts
- P310:28Artemi Panarin Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Scott Laughton (6)PHI 3 – 3 LA · LA 22% → 55% +34LA 22% → 55%+34 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- LA 63%
- ML PHI +160 / LA -192
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- LA: Elo 63.9%, market 63.1%
- Fair odds
- LA -171
- PHI +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.4 – 3.1 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1468 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | PHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −14 | +1 | PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.35 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +99 Elo | LA 63.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 63.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 63.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 63.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.728th of 32 |
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.011th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.324th of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.4% | Shot share | 50.3%14th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3288.9% | Save percentage | 89.9%16th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 32 |
| 10th of 3217–16 | Road vs home | 10–2230th of 32 |
| 1st of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 32 |
| 27th of 321468 | Elo rating | 148721st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 42–25 | 26–41 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–11 | 8–31 |
| Underdog | 33–14 | 18–10 |
| Overs–unders | 34–33 | 31–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 1–4 LA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.