Philadelphia Flyers at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Luke GlendeningGoals1
- Travis SanheimAssists1
- Luke GlendeningPoints1
Ducks- Cutter GauthierGoals1
- Cutter GauthierAssists1
- Cutter GauthierPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT2:17Noah Cates Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Matvei Michkov (18)3–2
- P318:06Leo Carlsson Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Troy Terry (35), Cutter Gauthier (26)2–2
- P219:22Cutter Gauthier Goal (35) Backhand, assists: Pavel Mintyukov (11)2–1
- P27:53Owen Tippett Goal (23) Tip-In, assists: Travis Sanheim (23)2–0
- P12:51Luke Glendening Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Cam York (21), Garnet Hathaway (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:51Luke Glendening Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Cam York (21), Garnet Hathaway (2)PHI 1 – 0 ANA · PHI 42% → 57% +15PHI 42% → 57%+15 pts
- P27:53Owen Tippett Goal (23) Tip-In, assists: Travis Sanheim (23)PHI 2 – 0 ANA · PHI 64% → 80% +17PHI 64% → 80%+17 pts
- P219:22Cutter Gauthier Goal (35) Backhand, assists: Pavel Mintyukov (11)PHI 2 – 1 ANA · ANA 13% → 31% +18ANA 13% → 31%+18 pts
- P318:06Leo Carlsson Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Troy Terry (35), Cutter Gauthier (26)PHI 2 – 2 ANA · ANA 2% → 51% +49ANA 2% → 51%+49 pts
- OT2:17Noah Cates Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Matvei Michkov (18)PHI 3 – 2 ANA · PHI 48% → 95% +47PHI 48% → 95%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ducks 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- ANA 58%
- ML PHI +130 / ANA -155
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- ANA: Elo 56.3%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- ANA -140
- PHI +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.0 – 3.5 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1466 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +2 | PHI: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ANA +44 Elo | ANA 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 58.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ANA 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.311th of 32 |
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.529th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.118th of 32 |
| 17th of 3249.5% | Shot share | 51.1%10th of 32 |
| 24th of 3288.8% | Save percentage | 88.8%25th of 32 |
| 5th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 32 |
| 15th of 3216–16 | Road vs home | 22–114th of 32 |
| 1st of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 150115th of 32 |
| 27th of 321466 | Elo rating | 147923rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 41–25 | 33–34 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–11 | 4–16 |
| Underdog | 32–14 | 29–18 |
| Overs–unders | 34–32 | 40–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 4–1 ANA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.