Philadelphia Flyers at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Christian DvorakGoals1
- Christian DvorakAssists1
- Christian DvorakPoints2
Sharks- Dmitry OrlovGoals1
- William EklundAssists1
- Dmitry OrlovPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:24Noah Cates Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (27)4–1
- P318:48Travis Sanheim Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–1
- P31:47Christian Dvorak Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (35), Matvei Michkov (21)2–1
- P213:12Dmitry Orlov Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (30), Macklin Celebrini (61)1–1
- P22:26Owen Tippett Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor Zegras (33), Noah Juulsen (9)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P22:26Owen Tippett Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor Zegras (33), Noah Juulsen (9)PHI 1 – 0 SJ · PHI 48% → 66% +18PHI 48% → 66%+18 pts
- P213:12Dmitry Orlov Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (30), Macklin Celebrini (61)PHI 1 – 1 SJ · SJ 31% → 52% +21SJ 31% → 52%+21 pts
- P31:47Christian Dvorak Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (35), Matvei Michkov (21)PHI 2 – 1 SJ · PHI 49% → 73% +25PHI 49% → 73%+25 pts
- P318:48Travis Sanheim Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: nonePHI 3 – 1 SJ · PHI >99% → >99% +1PHI >99% → >99%+1 pts
- P319:24Noah Cates Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (27)PHI 4 – 1 SJ · PHI >99% → 100% +0PHI >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sharks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- SJ 53%
- ML PHI +102 / SJ -122
- Pre-line forecast
- SJ 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SJ 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- SJ: Elo 49.1%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- SJ -111
- PHI +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.7 – 2.8 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1433 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | +5 | PHI: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · SJ: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +6 Elo | PHI 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SJ 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SJ 55.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SJ 52.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.118th of 32 |
| 14th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.631st of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.528th of 32 |
| 20th of 3249.3% | Shot share | 46.2%29th of 32 |
| 25th of 3288.9% | Save percentage | 88.9%24th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 8th of 3218–16 | Road vs home | 17–1618th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 15054th of 32 |
| 27th of 321472 | Elo rating | 143330th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 43–25 | 42–25 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–11 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 34–14 | 40–21 |
| Overs–unders | 35–33 | 33–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 4–1 SJ in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.