Buffalo Sabres at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Sam CarrickGoals2
- Logan StanleyAssists2
- Sam CarrickPoints2
SharksScoring summary
- P316:54Sam Carrick Goal (8) Deflected, assists: Logan Stanley (14), Zach Metsa (3)5–0
- P30:40Tage Thompson Goal (35) Wrist Shot, assists: Peyton Krebs (23), Alex Tuch (30)4–0
- P210:48Rasmus Dahlin Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Zucker (17), Mattias Samuelsson (26)3–0
- P29:41Sam Carrick Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (48), Zach Benson (23)2–0
- P29:05Noah Ostlund Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Doan (24), Logan Stanley (13)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P29:05Noah Ostlund Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Doan (24), Logan Stanley (13)BUF 1 – 0 SJ · BUF 55% → 73% +19BUF 55% → 73%+19 pts
- P29:41Sam Carrick Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (48), Zach Benson (23)BUF 2 – 0 SJ · BUF 73% → 87% +14BUF 73% → 87%+14 pts
- P210:48Rasmus Dahlin Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Zucker (17), Mattias Samuelsson (26)BUF 3 – 0 SJ · BUF 88% → 95% +8BUF 88% → 95%+8 pts
- P30:40Tage Thompson Goal (35) Wrist Shot, assists: Peyton Krebs (23), Alex Tuch (30)BUF 4 – 0 SJ · BUF 98% → >99% +2BUF 98% → >99%+2 pts
- P316:54Sam Carrick Goal (8) Deflected, assists: Logan Stanley (14), Zach Metsa (3)BUF 5 – 0 SJ · BUF >99% → >99% +0BUF >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 56%
- ML BUF -142 / SJ +120
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.6 pts
- BUF: Elo 61.0%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- BUF -129
- SJ +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 3.4 – 3.1 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1553 | 1438 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +8 | BUF: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · SJ: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +78 Elo | BUF 61.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 53.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.116th of 32 |
| 7th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.531st of 32 |
| 5th of 32+0.5 | Margin | −0.428th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3248.8% | Shot share | 46.0%30th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 89.0%22nd of 32 |
| 1st of 329–1 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 32 |
| 5th of 3220–14 | Road vs home | 17–1514th of 32 |
| 9th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 15045th of 32 |
| 5th of 321553 | Elo rating | 143830th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 40–28 | 42–24 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 14–18 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 26–10 | 40–20 |
| Overs–unders | 33–35 | 33–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 4–1 SJ in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.