Boston Bruins at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Fraser MintenGoals1
- David PastrnakAssists1
- Fraser MintenPoints1
Panthers- Mackie SamoskevichGoals1
- A.J. GreerAssists1
- Sam BennettPoints1
Scoring summary
- P119:33Fraser Minten Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Marat Khusnutdinov (18), David Pastrnak (67)1–2
- P17:39Sam Bennett Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: A.J. Greer (12)0–2
- P14:20Mackie Samoskevich Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:20Mackie Samoskevich Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: noneBOS 0 – 1 FLA · FLA 41% → 56% +15FLA 41% → 56%+15 pts
- P17:39Sam Bennett Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: A.J. Greer (12)BOS 0 – 2 FLA · FLA 57% → 71% +15FLA 57% → 71%+15 pts
- P119:33Fraser Minten Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Marat Khusnutdinov (18), David Pastrnak (67)BOS 1 – 2 FLA · BOS 24% → 40% +16BOS 24% → 40%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bruins 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 59%
- ML BOS -162 / FLA +136
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −14.0 pts
- BOS: Elo 45.3%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -146
- FLA +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.5 – 3.0 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +9 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +33 Elo | FLA 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 50.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.019th of 32 |
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.327th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.3 | Margin | −0.324th of 32 |
| 25th of 3247.9% | Shot share | 51.3%10th of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 88.6%27th of 32 |
| 1st of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 23rd of 3215–20 | Road vs home | 20–1712th of 32 |
| 8th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 15043rd of 32 |
| 11th of 321516 | Elo rating | 151114th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 49–26 | 25–49 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–14 | 9–40 |
| Underdog | 38–12 | 16–9 |
| Overs–unders | 42–33 | 42–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 8–8 FLA in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 16.
- Feb 4BOS 4 @ FLA 5Picked FLA 59%Hit
- Oct 21FLA 4 @ BOS 3Picked FLA 59%Hit
- Mar 11FLA 2 @ BOS 3Picked FLA 65%Miss
- Jan 11BOS 4 @ FLA 3Picked FLA 64%Miss
- Oct 14FLA 4 @ BOS 3Picked BOS 54%Miss
- Oct 8BOS 4 @ FLA 6Picked FLA 59%Hit
- May 17FLA 2 @ BOS 1PlayoffsPicked BOS 54%Miss
- May 14BOS 2 @ FLA 1PlayoffsPicked FLA 56%Miss