Minnesota Wild at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Mats ZuccarelloGoals1
- Quinn HughesAssists2
- Mats ZuccarelloPoints2
Bruins- Pavel ZachaGoals2
- Casey MittelstadtAssists3
- Casey MittelstadtPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:26Elias Lindholm Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (26)3–6
- P316:50Pavel Zacha Goal (26) Tip-In, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (25)3–5
- P313:44Ryan Hartman Goal (18) Batted, assists: Quinn Hughes (66), Mats Zuccarello (30)3–4
- P37:57Mats Zuccarello Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (65)2–4
- P33:48Elias Lindholm Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Lukas Reichel (5), Hampus Lindholm (20)1–4
- P214:46Kirill Kaprizov Goal (39) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Hartman (17), Brock Faber (35)1–3
- P210:27Viktor Arvidsson Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (63), Hampus Lindholm (19)0–3
- P114:00Pavel Zacha Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Viktor Arvidsson (23), Casey Mittelstadt (24)0–2
- P11:01Andrew Peeke Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (62), Fraser Minten (17)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:01Andrew Peeke Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (62), Fraser Minten (17)MIN 0 – 1 BOS · BOS 49% → 63% +14BOS 49% → 63%+14 pts
- P114:00Pavel Zacha Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Viktor Arvidsson (23), Casey Mittelstadt (24)MIN 0 – 2 BOS · BOS 65% → 79% +14BOS 65% → 79%+14 pts
- P210:27Viktor Arvidsson Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (63), Hampus Lindholm (19)MIN 0 – 3 BOS · BOS 85% → 94% +9BOS 85% → 94%+9 pts
- P214:46Kirill Kaprizov Goal (39) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Hartman (17), Brock Faber (35)MIN 1 – 3 BOS · MIN 5% → 13% +9MIN 5% → 13%+9 pts
- P313:44Ryan Hartman Goal (18) Batted, assists: Quinn Hughes (66), Mats Zuccarello (30)MIN 3 – 4 BOS · MIN 1% → 13% +12MIN 1% → 13%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 51%
- ML MIN -115 / BOS -105
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- MIN: Elo 48.4%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -104
- BOS +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.3 – 3.2 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +6 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +11 Elo | BOS 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 50.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.311th of 32 |
| 5th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.118th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.4 | Margin | +0.211th of 32 |
| 17th of 3249.8% | Shot share | 47.6%25th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3291.1% | Save percentage | 90.2%11th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3221–14 | Road vs home | 26–111st of 32 |
| 26th of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 32 |
| 6th of 321530 | Elo rating | 150315th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 36–37 | 46–26 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 12–31 | 11–14 |
| Underdog | 24–6 | 35–12 |
| Overs–unders | 39–34 | 39–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 4–1 BOS in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.