Boston Bruins at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- David PastrnakGoals1
- David PastrnakAssists2
- David PastrnakPoints3
Sabres- Jason ZuckerGoals2
- Tage ThompsonAssists2
- Jason ZuckerPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT0:38Pavel Zacha Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (61), Charlie McAvoy (45)4–3
- P314:00Casey Mittelstadt Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Aspirot (9), Pavel Zacha (30)3–3
- P35:54Jason Zucker Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (38)2–3
- P35:21Zach Benson Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–2
- P29:45Viktor Arvidsson Goal (20) Backhand, assists: David Pastrnak (60), Nikita Zadorov (18)2–1
- P115:18Jason Zucker Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (37), Jack Quinn (29)1–1
- P111:07David Pastrnak Goal (29) Snap Shot, assists: Fraser Minten (16), Marat Khusnutdinov (17)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P29:45Viktor Arvidsson Goal (20) Backhand, assists: David Pastrnak (60), Nikita Zadorov (18)BOS 2 – 1 BUF · BOS 40% → 60% +20BOS 40% → 60%+20 pts
- P35:21Zach Benson Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: noneBOS 2 – 2 BUF · BUF 29% → 57% +28BUF 29% → 57%+28 pts
- P35:54Jason Zucker Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (38)BOS 2 – 3 BUF · BUF 57% → 82% +25BUF 57% → 82%+25 pts
- P314:00Casey Mittelstadt Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Aspirot (9), Pavel Zacha (30)BOS 3 – 3 BUF · BOS 10% → 45% +35BOS 10% → 45%+35 pts
- OT0:38Pavel Zacha Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (61), Charlie McAvoy (45)BOS 4 – 3 BUF · BOS 46% → 89% +43BOS 46% → 89%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 64%
- ML BOS +170 / BUF -205
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.0 pts
- BUF: Elo 68.5%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- BUF -181
- BOS +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.8 – 3.7 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1558 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | BOS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −10 | +2 | BOS: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.25 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +135 Elo | BUF 68.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 66.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 66.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.55th of 32 |
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.97th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +0.64th of 32 |
| 26th of 3247.5% | Shot share | 48.8%22nd of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 90.8%3rd of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 32 |
| 26th of 3213–20 | Road vs home | 22–125th of 32 |
| 16th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 32 |
| 15th of 321500 | Elo rating | 15584th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 45–26 | 43–28 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 11–14 | 16–18 |
| Underdog | 34–12 | 27–10 |
| Overs–unders | 38–33 | 34–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 5–5 BUF in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.