Buffalo Sabres at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Owen PowerGoals1
- Rasmus DahlinAssists2
- Owen PowerPoints2
Ducks- Troy TerryGoals2
- Leo CarlssonAssists2
- Troy TerryPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT1:29Troy Terry Goal (16) Backhand, assists: none5–6
- P318:16Mikael Granlund Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Chris Kreider (22), Leo Carlsson (34)5–5
- P311:37Zach Benson Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (50), Beck Malenstyn (7)5–4
- P310:05Owen Power Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (38)4–4
- P34:40Jack Quinn Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (49), Zach Benson (25)3–4
- P215:40Troy Terry Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Tim Washe (3), Olen Zellweger (13)2–4
- P22:35Beckett Sennecke Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (40)2–3
- P117:14Josh Doan Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Ostlund (16), Bowen Byram (26)2–2
- P112:23Jackson LaCombe Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason McTavish (20), Beckett Sennecke (33)1–2
- P19:27Chris Kreider Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (33)1–1
- P13:36Alex Tuch Goal (29) Snap Shot, assists: Owen Power (18)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P22:35Beckett Sennecke Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (40)BUF 2 – 3 ANA · ANA 49% → 67% +18ANA 49% → 67%+18 pts
- P310:05Owen Power Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (38)BUF 4 – 4 ANA · BUF 19% → 51% +32BUF 19% → 51%+32 pts
- P311:37Zach Benson Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (50), Beck Malenstyn (7)BUF 5 – 4 ANA · BUF 51% → 84% +33BUF 51% → 84%+33 pts
- P318:16Mikael Granlund Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Chris Kreider (22), Leo Carlsson (34)BUF 5 – 5 ANA · ANA 2% → 50% +48ANA 2% → 50%+48 pts
- OT1:29Troy Terry Goal (16) Backhand, assists: noneBUF 5 – 6 ANA · ANA 50% → 93% +44ANA 50% → 93%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 52%
- ML BUF -118 / ANA -102
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- BUF: Elo 53.9%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- BUF -107
- ANA +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 3.3 – 3.2 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1561 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | BUF on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +7 | −5 | BUF: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · ANA: Ville Husso: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +27 Elo | BUF 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 50.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.311th of 32 |
| 7th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.428th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+0.6 | Margin | −0.118th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3248.8% | Shot share | 51.1%10th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3290.9% | Save percentage | 88.9%25th of 32 |
| 1st of 329–1 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3222–14 | Road vs home | 22–124th of 32 |
| 12th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 150018th of 32 |
| 5th of 321561 | Elo rating | 148121st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 42–28 | 34–35 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 16–18 | 4–17 |
| Underdog | 26–10 | 30–18 |
| Overs–unders | 33–37 | 40–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 3–2 ANA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.