Anaheim Ducks at Utah Mammoth, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Alex KillornGoals1
- Alex KillornAssists2
- Alex KillornPoints3
Mammoth- Dylan GuentherGoals1
- Sean DurziAssists1
- Dylan GuentherPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:05Mikael Granlund Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Poehling (22), Alex Killorn (15)4–1
- P318:24Cutter Gauthier Goal (36) Snap Shot, assists: Jeffrey Viel (5), John Carlson (37)3–1
- P29:09Alex Killorn Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Beckett Sennecke (32)2–1
- P113:37Ryan Poehling Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Killorn (14), Pavel Mintyukov (12)1–1
- P11:48Dylan Guenther Goal (34) Slap Shot, assists: Sean Durzi (18), JJ Peterka (20)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:48Dylan Guenther Goal (34) Slap Shot, assists: Sean Durzi (18), JJ Peterka (20)ANA 0 – 1 UTA · UTA 56% → 70% +14UTA 56% → 70%+14 pts
- P113:37Ryan Poehling Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Killorn (14), Pavel Mintyukov (12)ANA 1 – 1 UTA · ANA 29% → 44% +15ANA 29% → 44%+15 pts
- P29:09Alex Killorn Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Beckett Sennecke (32)ANA 2 – 1 UTA · ANA 45% → 65% +20ANA 45% → 65%+20 pts
- P318:24Cutter Gauthier Goal (36) Snap Shot, assists: Jeffrey Viel (5), John Carlson (37)ANA 3 – 1 UTA · ANA 99% → >99% +1ANA 99% → >99%+1 pts
- P319:05Mikael Granlund Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Poehling (22), Alex Killorn (15)ANA 4 – 1 UTA · ANA >99% → 100% +0ANA >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mammoth 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- UTA 56%
- ML ANA +120 / UTA -142
- Pre-line forecast
- UTA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTA 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- UTA: Elo 54.9%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- UTA -129
- ANA +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 3.1 – 3.4 UTA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | UTA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | UTA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −13 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · UTA: Vitek Vanecek: team allows 0.32 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTA +34 Elo | UTA 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTA 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTA 56.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTA 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.215th of 32 |
| 29th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 2.83rd of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.47th of 32 |
| 10th of 3251.2% | Shot share | 51.4%9th of 32 |
| 25th of 3288.8% | Save percentage | 89.6%17th of 32 |
| 11th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 32 |
| 20th of 3215–19 | Road vs home | 18–1411th of 32 |
| 16th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 149922nd of 32 |
| 23rd of 321476 | Elo rating | 152110th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 33–35 | 32–37 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–17 | 16–28 |
| Underdog | 29–18 | 16–9 |
| Overs–unders | 40–28 | 34–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 3–2 UTA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.
